Mithrandir Metrics
Player Toronto Blue Jays Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Toronto Blue Jays

Kevin Gausman

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 2", 205 lb · Age 35

Cards
25
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Toronto Blue Jays Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
202414113.8331310181.01621.22
202510113.5932320193.01891.06
2026484.3320200112.11161.22
14 Seasons1161213.8438134202023.120701.24
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal3 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.85
ERA current pace4.33
ERA rolling p504.17
Observed weight67%
ERA
3.08 3.60 4.17 4.74 5.26
FIP
2.98 3.40 3.87 4.34 4.76
K%
21.0% 22.2% 23.4% 24.7% 25.8%
BB%
5.8% 6.4% 7.0% 7.7% 8.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.25
62
ERA4.33
42
BB%7.1%
75
K%23.8%
59
xwOBA allowed0.305
59 +16 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.9%
33
Fastball velo93.9
41
Hard-hit allowed40.8%
37
Whiff%25.3%
69 +24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+107
82
Mithrandir Stuff+106
81
Slider Stuff+93
6
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gausman, Kevin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.305 2026-07-05: 0.3022026-07-06: 0.3022026-07-07: 0.3022026-07-08: 0.3062026-07-09: 0.3062026-07-10: 0.3062026-07-11: 0.3062026-07-12: 0.3062026-07-13: 0.3062026-07-14: 0.3052026-07-15: 0.3052026-07-16: 0.305 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gausman, Kevin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gausman, Kevin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 51.4%Split-Finger: 38.6%Slider: 10.0% FF51% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 51%FS 39%SL 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gausman, Kevin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 51% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mphSplit-Finger: 39% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.0 mphFS84 mphSlider: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.1 mphSL84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 86.2% 687 107 qualified
SL 13.8% 110 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age35
Height6' 2"
Weight205 lb
Debut2013-05-23
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.40
K% Δ+0.018

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.339
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.305

Gausman’s wOBA-against sits at 0.339, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.305 — a gap of 0.034, 1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 117 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching252026-07-12Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.0% K | 3.93 ERAProjection
2026-04-14 @ MIL3 ER / 5 K5.0 IP
2026-04-07 vs LAD3 ER / 5 K5.1 IP
2026-04-01 vs COL0 ER / 10 K6.0 IP
2026-03-27 vs ATH1 ER / 11 K6.0 IP