Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs KC | 6.24 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Joe Ryan
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CWS | 6.04 | 27.8% | 27.3% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 6 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
LAA vs COL | 5.93 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs STL | 5.21 | 28.2% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable starter
|
LAD vs AZ | 4.70 | 25.5% | 27.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs WSH | 4.70 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs LAD | 4.39 | 17.5% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 3 |
Austin Warren
Probable starter
|
NYM vs SEA | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Emerson Hancock
Probable starter
|
SEA vs NYM | 4.28 | 21.5% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs MIL | 4.26 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Ty Madden
Probable starter
|
DET vs TB | 3.93 | 21.9% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Shane Drohan
Probable starter
|
MIL vs SF | 3.85 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 1 |
Luinder Avila
Probable starter
|
KC vs CIN | 3.75 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 1 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs LAA | 3.67 | 18.7% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs MIA | 3.42 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Griffin Jax
Probable starter
|
TB vs DET | 3.33 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs TEX | 2.96 | 14.0% | 11.8% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.