Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs NYM | 6.50 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs CLE | 5.98 | 29.3% | 29.7% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 6 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
TOR vs ATL | 5.54 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Jack Flaherty
Probable starter
|
DET vs TB | 5.41 | 26.3% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable starter
|
TEX vs STL | 5.38 | 25.6% | 27.6% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 4 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs SD | 5.30 | 23.4% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Bryce Elder
Probable starter
|
ATL vs TOR | 5.24 | 23.1% | 25.3% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 4 |
Connelly Early
Probable starter
|
BOS vs BAL | 5.22 | 25.0% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Harrison
Probable starter
|
MIL vs SF | 5.12 | 26.1% | 29.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs NYY | 4.97 | 26.4% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Mike Burrows
Probable starter
|
HOU vs PIT | 4.69 | 19.7% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 5 |
Grayson Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
LAA vs COL | 4.67 | 21.9% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Connor Prielipp
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CWS | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Michael Soroka
Probable starter
|
AZ vs LAD | 4.65 | 23.8% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs BOS | 4.65 | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Jameson Taillon
Probable starter
|
CHC vs ATH | 4.63 | 21.1% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Trevor McDonald
Probable starter
|
SF vs MIL | 4.45 | 22.9% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Steven Matz
Probable starter
|
TB vs DET | 4.43 | 23.4% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Gage Jump
Probable starter
|
ATH vs CHC | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
STL vs TEX | 4.20 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs HOU | 4.14 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs KC | 4.01 | 17.5% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs CIN | 4.00 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs MIN | 3.98 | 20.7% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Eric Lauer
Probable starter
|
LAD vs AZ | 3.89 | 22.4% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 3 |
Miles Mikolas
Probable starter
|
WSH vs MIA | 3.38 | 16.7% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 2 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs PHI | 3.10 | 17.2% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs LAA | 3.03 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.