Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs ATL | 6.52 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 5 | 4 |
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
DET vs BOS | 6.39 | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 6 | 4 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs BAL | 6.21 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 5 | 4 |
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs PHI | 6.17 | 27.6% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 6 | 4 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs TB | 6.01 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 5 | 4 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TEX | 5.93 | 23.0% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 5 | 4 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
NYM vs CHC | 5.78 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 6 | 4 |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable starter
|
TEX vs SEA | 5.69 | 25.6% | 27.6% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 5 | 4 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CIN | 5.63 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 6 | 3 |
Brandon Woodruff
Probable starter
|
MIL vs MIA | 5.50 | 26.5% | 29.5% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 6 | 3 |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable starter
|
LAA vs SD | 5.44 | 22.7% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 5 | 4 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs KC | 5.42 | 24.9% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 5 | 3 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs MIL | 5.33 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 6 | 4 |
Luis Severino
Probable starter
|
ATH vs CWS | 5.15 | 22.9% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 5 | 4 |
Jameson Taillon
Probable starter
|
CHC vs NYM | 4.89 | 21.1% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 6 | 3 |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable starter
|
LAD vs COL | 4.87 | 25.5% | 27.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 7 | 3 |
Lance McCullers Jr.
Probable starter
|
HOU vs STL | 4.82 | 24.5% | 25.4% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 7 | 3 |
Dean Kremer
Probable starter
|
BAL vs CLE | 4.74 | 23.9% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 5 | 1 |
Zac Gallen
Probable starter
|
AZ vs TOR | 4.48 | 18.5% | 15.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 6 | 4 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs NYY | 4.25 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 6 | 3 |
Brayan Bello
Probable starter
|
BOS vs DET | 4.16 | 16.9% | 14.8% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 6 | 3 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs PIT | 4.15 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 6 | 3 |
Ryan Feltner
Probable starter
|
COL vs LAD | 3.99 | 19.0% | 17.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 7 | 3 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs MIN | 3.96 | 17.9% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 6 | 4 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs SF | 3.73 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 5 | 4 |
Adrian Houser
Probable starter
|
SF vs WSH | 3.67 | 16.5% | 14.7% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 6 | 3 |
Max Scherzer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs AZ | 3.53 | 21.7% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 6 | 3 |
Erick Fedde
Probable starter
|
CWS vs ATH | 3.46 | 17.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 7 | 2 |
Germán Márquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs LAA | 3.23 | 17.2% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 7 | 3 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs HOU | 3.14 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 6 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.