Mithrandir Metrics
Player Chicago Cubs Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Chicago Cubs

Javier Assad

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 200 lb · Age 28

Cards
6
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Chicago Cubs Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024763.7329290147.01241.40
2025413.6587037.0231.22
2026614.11158061.1371.13
5 Seasons24133.5393620392.13081.30
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal7 metrics
42
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.36
ERA current pace4.11
ERA rolling p504.23
Observed weight52%
ERA
2.96 3.56 4.23 4.90 5.50
FIP
3.97 4.40 4.88 5.35 5.78
K%
14.5% 15.8% 17.2% 18.6% 19.8%
BB%
5.8% 6.5% 7.4% 8.2% 9.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.17
73
ERA4.11
47
BB%6.2%
85 +40 vs proj
K%15.4%
8 -20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.336
28 +18 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.5%
38
Fastball velo93.1
27
Hard-hit allowed49.0%
3
Whiff%12.5%
1
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Mithrandir Stuff+103
56
Sinker Stuff+102
51
Changeup Stuff+104
69
Curveball Stuff+97
2
Cutter Stuff+100
35
Fastball Stuff+106
78
Slider Stuff+93
6
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Assad, Javier · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.336 2026-07-07: 0.3322026-07-08: 0.3322026-07-09: 0.3322026-07-10: 0.3322026-07-11: 0.3322026-07-12: 0.3322026-07-13: 0.3362026-07-14: 0.3362026-07-15: 0.3362026-07-16: 0.3362026-07-17: 0.3362026-07-18: 0.336 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Assad, Javier · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 12%12%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Assad, Javier · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 40.2%4-Seam Fastball: 19.2%Cutter: 14.7%Changeup: 7.3%Sweeper: 7.3%Curveball: 6.8% SI40% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 40%FF 19%FC 15%CH 7%ST 7%CU 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Assad, Javier · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 40% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mph4-Seam Fastball: 19% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mphCutter: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 88.3 mphFC88 mphChangeup: 7% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 7% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 81.2 mphST81 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 77.6 mphCU78 mphSlider: 5% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 85.2 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 43.5% 272 102 qualified
FB 16.6% 104 106 limited sample
FC 15.0% 94 100 limited sample
SL 10.4% 65 93 limited sample
CH 7.8% 49 104 limited sample
CB 6.7% 42 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 1"
Weight200 lb
Debut2022-08-23
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.44
K% Δ-0.037

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.338
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.336

Assad’s wOBA-against sits at 0.338, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.336 — a gap of 0.001, 0.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 63 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching62026-07-11Run prevention outpaced the underlying contact signals
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202619.2% K | 4.55 ERAProjection
2026-04-13 @ PHI9 ER / 3 K4.1 IP
2026-04-07 @ TB0 ER / 3 K5.2 IP