Mithrandir Metrics
Player Chicago Cubs Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Chicago Cubs

Javier Assad

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 200 lb · Age 29

Cards
9
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Chicago Cubs Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024763.7329290147.01241.40
2025413.6587037.0231.22
2026623.632811294.1631.14
5 Seasons24143.47106652425.13341.29
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
42
Arsenal7 metrics
35
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.36
ERA current pace3.63
ERA rolling p503.90
Observed weight62%
ERA
2.60 3.22 3.90 4.59 5.21
FIP
3.83 4.27 4.76 5.24 5.68
K%
15.3% 16.4% 17.6% 18.8% 19.9%
BB%
6.3% 7.0% 7.7% 8.4% 9.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.18
76
ERA3.63
65
BB%7.1%
76 +27 vs proj
K%16.8%
14 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.324
35 +26 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.8%
59 +28 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
33
Hard-hit allowed44.2%
14
Whiff%14.7%
2
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+102
45
Sinker Stuff+102
45
Changeup Stuff+102
51
Curveball Stuff+98
7
Cutter Stuff+99
28
Fastball Stuff+104
61
Slider Stuff+93
5
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Assad, Javier · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.324 2026-09-12: 0.3282026-09-13: 0.3282026-09-14: 0.3282026-09-18: 0.3292026-09-19: 0.3302026-09-20: 0.3302026-09-21: 0.3302026-09-22: 0.3302026-09-23: 0.3302026-09-24: 0.3292026-09-25: 0.3292026-09-26: 0.324 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Assad, Javier · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 15%15%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Assad, Javier · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 42.0%4-Seam Fastball: 18.8%Cutter: 12.3%Sweeper: 8.2%Changeup: 7.9%Curveball: 7.2% SI42% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 42%FF 19%FC 12%ST 8%CH 8%CU 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Assad, Javier · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 42% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.4 mphSI93 mph4-Seam Fastball: 19% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.5 mphFF94 mphCutter: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.9 mphFC89 mphSweeper: 8% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 81.7 mphST82 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.0 mphCH86 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 77.6 mphCU78 mphSlider: 4% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 85.3 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 42.5% 376 102 qualified
FB 17.4% 154 104 limited sample
FC 14.1% 125 99 limited sample
SL 10.5% 93 93 limited sample
CH 8.5% 75 102 limited sample
CB 7.0% 62 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height6' 1"
Weight200 lb
Debut2022-08-23
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.92
K% Δ-0.024

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.325
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.324

Assad’s wOBA-against sits at 0.325, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.324 — a gap of 0.001, 0.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 96 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching92026-09-05Stuff and strike quality carried the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202619.2% K | 4.55 ERAProjection
2026-04-13 @ PHI9 ER / 3 K4.1 IP
2026-04-07 @ TB0 ER / 3 K5.2 IP