Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs LAD | 6.39 | 29.8% | 33.1% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 0 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs KC | 6.15 | 29.6% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIA | 5.92 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs AZ | 5.63 | 23.0% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Carlos Rodón
Probable starter
|
NYY vs ATH | 5.52 | 25.2% | 22.6% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 0 |
Logan Webb
Probable starter
|
SF vs COL | 5.31 | 22.2% | 21.2% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 5 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs PIT | 5.01 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs STL | 4.97 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Luis Severino
Probable starter
|
ATH vs NYY | 4.84 | 22.9% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TOR | 4.72 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Kai-Wei Teng
Probable starter
|
HOU vs MIL | 4.64 | 25.0% | 30.5% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Jared Jones
Probable starter
|
PIT vs MIN | 4.61 | 21.9% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Max Meyer
Probable starter
|
MIA vs NYM | 4.58 | 23.7% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 5 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs CIN | 4.44 | 22.1% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Tyler Samaniego
Probable starter
|
BOS vs CLE | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Walbert Ureña
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TB | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Slade Cecconi
Probable starter
|
CLE vs BOS | 4.18 | 19.6% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 4 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
COL vs SF | 4.13 | 18.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 3 |
Troy Melton
Probable starter
|
DET vs CWS | 4.02 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Coleman Crow
Probable starter
|
MIL vs HOU | 3.90 | 21.5% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 1 |
Lucas Giolito
Probable starter
|
SD vs WSH | 3.88 | 20.2% | 19.2% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Chris Paddack
Probable starter
|
CIN vs ATL | 3.86 | 20.2% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs LAA | 3.85 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Zac Gallen
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SEA | 3.85 | 18.5% | 15.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 4 |
Justin Wrobleski
Probable starter
|
LAD vs PHI | 3.78 | 16.1% | 14.1% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 3 |
Paxton Schultz
Probable starter
|
WSH vs SD | 3.75 | 22.4% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 14.2 | 10 | 0 |
Stephen Kolek
Probable starter
|
KC vs TEX | 3.73 | 18.0% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 0 |
Erick Fedde
Probable starter
|
CWS vs DET | 3.65 | 17.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs CHC | 3.27 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.