Mithrandir Metrics
Player Washington Nationals Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Washington Nationals

Pj Poulin

P · Bats/Throws R/L · 6' 1", 195 lb · Age 29

Cards
10
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Washington Nationals Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025213.65280124.2271.46
2026302.703511336.2251.31
2 Seasons513.086311461.1521.37
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
39
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
26
Arsenal5 metrics
35
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.04
ERA current pace2.70
ERA rolling p503.50
Observed weight40%
ERA
1.64 2.52 3.50 4.48 5.36
FIP
3.08 3.59 4.16 4.73 5.24
K%
15.5% 17.6% 19.9% 22.2% 24.3%
BB%
7.8% 9.3% 10.8% 12.4% 13.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
65
ERA2.70
83
BB%13.0%
12 -24 vs proj
K%18.5%
23 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.353
14 -40 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.2%
18 -56 vs proj
Fastball velo89.7
3
Hard-hit allowed46.3%
8
Whiff%16.4%
6 -50 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+100
35
Fastball Stuff+100
32
Mithrandir Stuff+100
31
Sinker Stuff+103
58
Slider Stuff+97
20
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Poulin, Pj · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.353 2026-07-07: 0.3582026-07-08: 0.3582026-07-09: 0.3582026-07-10: 0.3582026-07-11: 0.3582026-07-12: 0.3582026-07-13: 0.3532026-07-14: 0.3532026-07-15: 0.3532026-07-16: 0.3532026-07-17: 0.3532026-07-18: 0.353 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Poulin, Pj · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Poulin, Pj · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 35.5%4-Seam Fastball: 29.7%Sinker: 22.6%Changeup: 12.1% ST36% · 79 mphprimary pitch ST 36%FF 30%SI 23%CH 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Poulin, Pj · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 36% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 79.0 mphST79 mph4-Seam Fastball: 30% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 90.2 mphFF90 mphSinker: 23% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 89.0 mphSI89 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 80.4 mphCH80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 35.5% 166 97 limited sample
FB 30.8% 144 100 limited sample
SI 18.8% 88 103 limited sample
CH 15.0% 70 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height6' 1"
Weight195 lb
Debut2025-08-05
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.45
K% Δ-0.025

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.314
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.353

Poulin’s wOBA-against sits at 0.314, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.353 — a gap of 0.039, -1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 39 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching102026-07-11Sweeper played up through ST/SI tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.0% K | 4.15 ERAProjection
2026-04-20 vs ATL2 ER / 0 K0.1 IP
2026-04-17 vs SF0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-14 @ PIT1 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-12 @ MIL0 ER / 0 K1.1 IP
2026-04-08 vs STL0 ER / 0 K0.1 IP