Mithrandir Metrics
Player Atlanta Braves Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Atlanta Braves

Grant Holmes

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 0", 226 lb · Age 30

Cards
30
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Atlanta Braves Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024213.56267068.1701.19
2025493.9922210115.01231.34
20261063.4431290151.21151.31
3 Seasons16163.6579570335.03081.29
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
41
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal7 metrics
37
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.52
ERA current pace3.49
ERA rolling p503.50
Observed weight73%
ERA
2.44 2.94 3.50 4.05 4.55
FIP
3.90 4.22 4.58 4.94 5.26
K%
17.5% 18.5% 19.5% 20.5% 21.4%
BB%
8.1% 8.7% 9.4% 10.0% 10.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.31
54
ERA3.49
69
BB%9.8%
40
K%17.9%
21 -28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.342
20 -27 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.8%
28
Fastball velo93.9
42
Hard-hit allowed45.7%
8
Whiff%25.4%
71
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+101
44
Mithrandir Stuff+100
27
Slider Stuff+97
16
Changeup Stuff+92
8
Curveball Stuff+102
49
Cutter Stuff+103
66
Sinker Stuff+102
51
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holmes, Grant · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.342 2026-09-12: 0.3332026-09-13: 0.3332026-09-14: 0.3372026-09-18: 0.3362026-09-19: 0.3362026-09-20: 0.3362026-09-21: 0.3392026-09-22: 0.3392026-09-23: 0.3392026-09-24: 0.3392026-09-25: 0.3392026-09-26: 0.342 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holmes, Grant · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 36.1%4-Seam Fastball: 28.0%Sinker: 12.4%Cutter: 8.4%Curveball: 7.9%Changeup: 7.2% SL36% · 85 mphprimary pitch SL 36%FF 28%SI 12%FC 8%CU 8%CH 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 36% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 85.4 mphSL85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.2 mphFF94 mphSinker: 12% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.2 mphSI93 mphCutter: 8% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.1 mphFC92 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 82.9 mphCU83 mphChangeup: 7% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.3 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 34.0% 441 97 qualified
FB 30.6% 397 101 qualified
SI 12.1% 157 102 limited sample
CB 10.0% 130 102 limited sample
CH 7.3% 95 92 limited sample
FC 5.9% 76 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 0"
Weight226 lb
Debut2024-06-16
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.56
K% Δ-0.040

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.328
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.342

Holmes’s wOBA-against sits at 0.328, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.342 — a gap of 0.014, -0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 156 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching302026-09-19Slider played up through SL/FF tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.0% K | 4.05 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 vs AZ6 ER / 3 K3.2 IP
2026-04-13 vs MIA3 ER / 3 K4.0 IP
2026-04-08 @ LAA2 ER / 6 K6.2 IP
2026-04-03 @ AZ0 ER / 4 K6.0 IP
2026-03-29 vs KC3 ER / 4 K5.0 IP