Mithrandir Metrics
Player Atlanta Braves Refreshed Jun 14 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Atlanta Braves

Grant Holmes

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 0", 226 lb · Age 30

Cards
14
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Atlanta Braves Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024213.56267068.1701.19
2025493.9922210115.01231.34
2026424.051313066.2591.34
3 Seasons10123.8961410250.02521.30
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
37
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
38
Arsenal7 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-14
ERA preseason3.52
ERA current pace4.05
ERA rolling p503.82
Observed weight56%
ERA
2.85 3.31 3.82 4.32 4.78
FIP
4.06 4.35 4.68 5.01 5.30
K%
19.1% 20.4% 21.9% 23.3% 24.7%
BB%
7.7% 8.5% 9.4% 10.3% 11.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
43
ERA4.05
45
BB%10.4%
32 -16 vs proj
K%20.5%
35
xwOBA allowed0.335
30 -18 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.0%
24 -18 vs proj
Fastball velo94.1
45
Hard-hit allowed46.2%
11
Whiff%26.4%
75
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-14
Fastball Stuff+103
57
Mithrandir Stuff+100
31
Slider Stuff+95
13
Changeup Stuff+91
4
Curveball Stuff+102
52
Cutter Stuff+104
71
Sinker Stuff+104
60
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holmes, Grant · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.335 2026-06-03: 0.3272026-06-04: 0.3272026-06-05: 0.3332026-06-06: 0.3332026-06-07: 0.3332026-06-08: 0.3332026-06-09: 0.3332026-06-10: 0.3332026-06-11: 0.3362026-06-12: 0.3362026-06-13: 0.3362026-06-14: 0.335 2026-06-03 2026-06-14 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holmes, Grant · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 39.6%4-Seam Fastball: 33.2%Sinker: 7.6%Curveball: 7.2%Cutter: 6.8%Changeup: 5.6% SL40% · 85 mphprimary pitch SL 40%FF 33%SI 8%CU 7%FC 7%CH 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holmes, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 40% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 85.3 mphSL85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.3 mphFF94 mphSinker: 8% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 93.3 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 82.9 mphCU83 mphCutter: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.3 mphFC92 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.5 mphCH90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 38.3% 317 95 qualified
FB 35.0% 290 103 qualified
CB 10.3% 85 102 limited sample
SI 6.6% 55 104 limited sample
CH 5.0% 41 91 limited sample
FC 4.8% 40 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 0"
Weight226 lb
Debut2024-06-16
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.00
K% Δ-0.015

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.348
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.335

Holmes’s wOBA-against sits at 0.348, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.335 — a gap of 0.012, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 71 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching142026-05-23Slider played up through SL/FF tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.0% K | 4.05 ERAProjection
2026-04-13 vs MIA3 ER / 3 K4.0 IP
2026-04-08 @ LAA2 ER / 6 K6.2 IP
2026-04-03 @ AZ0 ER / 4 K6.0 IP
2026-03-29 vs KC3 ER / 4 K5.0 IP