Mithrandir Metrics
Player AZ Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / AZ

Ryne Nelson

Player · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 210 lb · Age 28

Cards
15
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club AZ Position -- Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241064.2428251150.21261.25
2025733.3933231154.01321.07
2026354.951915087.1661.26
5 Seasons29234.30112932554.14361.23
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
46
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
38
Arsenal6 metrics
67
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.35
ERA current pace4.79
ERA rolling p504.63
Observed weight63%
ERA
3.61 4.09 4.63 5.16 5.64
FIP
4.06 4.33 4.64 4.95 5.23
K%
17.1% 18.2% 19.4% 20.6% 21.7%
BB%
5.3% 5.8% 6.5% 7.2% 7.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
68
ERA4.79
30
BB%6.2%
88
K%19.1%
30
xwOBA allowed0.351
14 -28 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.6%
10 -22 vs proj
Fastball velo96.3
79
Hard-hit allowed44.0%
15
Whiff%17.9%
12
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+111
97
Mithrandir Stuff+109
97
Slider Stuff+103
64
Curveball Stuff+100
23
Cutter Stuff+102
61
Sinker Stuff+104
60
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Nelson, Ryne · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.351 2026-09-13: 0.3492026-09-14: 0.3492026-09-18: 0.3522026-09-19: 0.3522026-09-20: 0.3522026-09-21: 0.3512026-09-22: 0.3512026-09-23: 0.3512026-09-24: 0.3512026-09-25: 0.3512026-09-26: 0.3512026-09-27: 0.351 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 58%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Nelson, Ryne · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nelson, Ryne · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 57.7%Slider: 20.4%Cutter: 9.4%Curveball: 9.3%Sinker: 3.2% FF58% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 58%SL 20%FC 9%CU 9%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nelson, Ryne · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 58% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 96.4 mphFF96 mphSlider: 20% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 88.5 mphSL89 mphCutter: 9% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.9 mphFC93 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 80.8 mphCU81 mphSinker: 3% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 95.3 mphSI95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 57.4% 654 111 qualified
SL 20.8% 237 103 qualified
FC 9.3% 106 102 limited sample
CB 8.8% 100 100 limited sample
SI 3.7% 42 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.60
K% Δ-0.012

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.372
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.351

Nelson’s wOBA-against sits at 0.372, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.351 — a gap of 0.021, 0.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 95 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching152026-05-244-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.3% K | 4.19 ERAProjection