The Comp Constellation

Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 264 qualified hitters (202+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.

strong match (0.55+) moderate (0.45 to 0.55) weaker (< 0.45) star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles

Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Butler, Lawrence in signal, the comp in amber.

ATH · bats L · 288 PA

Ranked comps for Butler, Lawrence

#PlayerSimilarityAgrees onDiffers onOpen
01 Yelich, Christian MIL · L · 297 PA 0.74 xwOBA on contactGround-ball rateIn-zone contact Sweet-spot rate -1.4zSwing length +1.1zSprint speed +0.7z Player Projection Swing lab
02 Baty, Brett NYM · L · 345 PA 0.67 Strikeout ratexwOBA on contactWhiff rate Ground-ball rate -1.5zFly-ball rate +1.3zBarrel rate +0.9z Player Projection Swing lab
03 Bogaerts, Xander SD · R · 379 PA 0.66 Avg exit velocityGround-ball rateChase rate Sweet-spot rate -1.4zStrikeout rate -1.2zOppo rate -1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
04 Reynolds, Bryan PIT · L · 440 PA 0.55 Swing lengthWhiff rateSweet-spot rate Isolated power +1.5zSprint speed +1.3zFly-ball rate +1.2z Player Projection Swing lab
05 Arozarena, Randy SEA · R · 403 PA 0.54 Whiff rateMax exit velocitySwing length Pull rate -1.5zIsolated power +1.4zChase rate +1.2z Player Projection Swing lab
06 Chapman, Matt SF · R · 364 PA 0.54 Max exit velocityAvg exit velocityChase rate Sweet-spot rate -1.5zGround-ball rate -1.5zSprint speed +1.4z Player Projection Swing lab
07 Herrera, Iván STL · R · 431 PA 0.53 Oppo rateWalk rateBat speed Strikeout rate -1.7zSwing length +1.7zIn-zone contact +1.6z Player Projection Swing lab
08 Julien, Edouard COL · L · 270 PA 0.53 Isolated powerStrikeout rateOppo rate Sweet-spot rate +2.2zMax exit velocity -1.2zIn-zone contact +1.2z Player Projection Swing lab
09 Karros, Kyle COL · R · 343 PA 0.51 Hard-hit rateWalk rateSwing length Ground-ball rate -1.6zSweet-spot rate +1.6zIn-zone contact +1.5z Player Projection Swing lab
10 Cortes, Carlos ATH · L · 241 PA 0.50 Oppo rateSwing lengthxwOBA on contact Strikeout rate -2.1zPull rate -1.4zGround-ball rate -1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
11 Crawford, J.P. SEA · L · 335 PA 0.47 Barrel ratexwOBA on contactOppo rate Max exit velocity -1.7zWhiff rate -1.6zIn-zone contact +1.5z Player Projection Swing lab
12 Freeland, Alex LAD · L · 241 PA 0.46 Sweet-spot rateBarrel rateIn-zone contact Max exit velocity -2.0zFly-ball rate +1.7zPull rate -1.4z Player Projection Swing lab

Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.