Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026
Reynolds, Bryan
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team PIT
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
82
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.337 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.369 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.358 |
| Observed weight | 67% |
xwOBA
0.333
0.345
0.358
0.372
0.384
wOBA
0.378
0.392
0.408
0.424
0.438
ISO
0.151
0.164
0.178
0.193
0.206
K%
20.7%
21.8%
23.0%
24.2%
25.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.9%
64
Exit velocity91.1
87
Hard-hit%48.0%
86
xBA0.354
81
xSLG0.620
82
xwOBA0.369
93
+17 vs proj
BB%14.8%
97
+54 vs proj
Bat speed70.6
65
K%22.3%
50
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
46
Arm Strength93.9 · LF
60
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · LF
6
Range Runs-3.8 · LF
12
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · LF
62
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
93
Sprint Speed28.0 · LF
68
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.7% · rebadged research
87
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.9% · rebadged research
78
Correct Decisions71.6% · rebadged research
91
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · borderline
59
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
45
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278 · validated thin sample
56
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.316 · insufficient sample
88
Resists FastballwOBA 0.377 · validated
5
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.393 · validated
5
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
183 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.032 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.071 |
| Sample | 440 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 606 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.337 | 0.296 to 0.391 | +/- 0.047 |
| ISO | 0.161 | 0.112 to 0.247 | +/- 0.068 |
| Barrel% | 6.3% | 4.4% to 8.5% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 46.0% | 41.0% to 52.7% | +/- 5.8% |
| K% | 24.6% | 20.1% to 29.3% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 8.0% | 6.4% to 11.3% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.311 | 0.274 to 0.363 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
1181 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.291 |
| K% | 21.5% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |
vs RHP
2961 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.302 |
| K% | 21.1% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 5.6% |