Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026

McMahon, Ryan

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.307 xwOBA
Range
0.262 to 0.343
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Impact slugger Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.298
xwOBA current pace0.285
xwOBA rolling p500.292
Observed weight45%
xwOBA
0.263 0.277 0.292 0.308 0.322
wOBA
0.268 0.289 0.312 0.336 0.356
ISO
0.125 0.142 0.162 0.181 0.199
K%
28.1% 29.7% 31.5% 33.3% 34.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.6%
25 -44 vs proj
Barrel%7.1%
76
Bat speed71.1
72
Exit velocity90.3
75
Hard-hit%50.0%
90
K%31.9%
8
xBA0.332
59
xSLG0.574
68
xwOBA0.285
28 -20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength86.5 · 3B
60
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
45
Range Runs0.3 · 3B
49
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.8 · 3B
16
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.2% · rebadged research
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.4% · rebadged research
8
Correct Decisions65.3% · rebadged research
42
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.255 · borderline
96
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · insufficient sample
84
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
32
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
79
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331 · validated
68
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359 · validated
41
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
25
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA McMahon, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.2712026-05-19: 0.2702026-05-21: 0.2812026-05-23: 0.2802026-05-24: 0.2802026-05-25: 0.2782026-05-26: 0.2782026-05-28: 0.2862026-05-29: 0.2862026-05-30: 0.2862026-05-31: 0.2862026-06-01: 0.285 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Ryan Mcmahon's tools (93) outpace production (75) by 18 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.

See full optimization →

Chase Rate Problem
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk
Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

106 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart McMahon, Ryan · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 23% of plotted batted ballsPull 23%Center field third: 63% of plotted batted ballsCenter 63%Right field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsOppo 14% LF 318 CF 408 RF 314 2026-03-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 81.1 / LA -45.02026-03-17 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 30.02026-03-17 · field out · SL · popup · EV 85.3 / LA 69.02026-03-17 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.5 / LA 4.02026-03-19 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 112.1 / LA 10.02026-03-20 · field out · FC · popup · EV 88.5 / LA 61.02026-03-20 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 106.3 / LA 20.02026-03-22 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA -2.02026-03-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.2 / LA -14.02026-03-22 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 107.5 / LA 5.02026-03-24 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 110.1 / LA 14.02026-03-24 · sac fly · CU · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 44.02026-03-25 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA -26.02026-03-28 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 85.8 / LA -23.02026-03-28 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 24.02026-03-28 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 60.4 / LA -52.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 90.4 / LA 27.02026-03-30 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 0.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA -24.02026-04-01 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 76.7 / LA 51.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 31.02026-04-04 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.3 / LA -20.02026-04-05 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA -18.02026-04-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 97.2 / LA 13.02026-04-08 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA -17.02026-04-09 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 40.02026-04-09 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 6.02026-04-11 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 81.5 / LA 17.02026-04-11 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 88.7 / LA 52.02026-04-12 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 18.02026-04-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.5 / LA -9.02026-04-12 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.7 / LA -6.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 81.7 / LA 2.02026-04-13 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 88.1 / LA 21.02026-04-14 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.9 / LA -14.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 40.1 / LA -41.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 46.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.8 / LA -9.02026-04-17 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 103.3 / LA 37.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.8 / LA 42.02026-04-23 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA -10.02026-04-24 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 29.02026-04-24 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -12.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 99.2 / LA 6.02026-04-24 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.4 / LA -5.02026-04-25 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 2.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.5 / LA 30.02026-04-25 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 91.9 / LA 13.02026-04-25 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 109.3 / LA 6.02026-04-26 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 86.6 / LA 16.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.0 / LA 54.02026-04-26 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 34.02026-04-27 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 57.8 / LA 15.02026-04-27 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 97.8 / LA 17.02026-04-28 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 93.1 / LA -7.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.3 / LA 33.02026-04-29 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 68.6 / LA -21.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 69.2 / LA 34.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · popup · EV 60.3 / LA 42.02026-05-02 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 23.02026-05-03 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 27.02026-05-03 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 106.4 / LA 49.02026-05-03 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 76.7 / LA -11.02026-05-03 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 14.02026-05-04 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 108.9 / LA 8.02026-05-04 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 58.02026-05-04 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 87.2 / LA 52.02026-05-05 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 97.3 / LA 29.02026-05-05 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 86.0 / LA 15.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.7 / LA 39.02026-05-06 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 46.02026-05-06 · field out · FC · popup · EV 74.9 / LA 71.02026-05-07 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 4.02026-05-07 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 110.5 / LA 6.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 105.7 / LA 17.02026-05-09 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 0.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · popup · EV 60.9 / LA 44.02026-05-10 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 100.3 / LA 20.02026-05-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.0 / LA -2.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · popup · EV 87.4 / LA 73.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 41.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.7 / LA -42.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.5 / LA -21.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 91.6 / LA 25.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 69.2 / LA 50.02026-05-15 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 70.6 / LA -8.02026-05-15 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 75.1 / LA 41.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 62.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA -17.02026-05-17 · sac bunt · FF · ground_ball2026-05-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 72.2 / LA 43.02026-05-17 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.5 / LA 3.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 70.2 / LA 12.02026-05-19 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.1 / LA 29.02026-05-19 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 4.02026-05-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.6 / LA -56.02026-05-20 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA -9.02026-05-20 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 50.5 / LA -82.02026-05-21 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 28.02026-05-21 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 25.02026-05-22 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 76.1 / LA 37.02026-05-22 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 89.4 / LA -10.02026-05-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 4.02026-05-27 · home run · SI · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 22.02026-05-27 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 82.5 / LA 17.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 95.8 / LA 19.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile McMahon, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 50%50%Chase: 31%31%Whiff: 29%29%Zone contact: 85%85%Contact: 71%71%Hard hit: 50%50% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.289 vs 0.251 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
4
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.022
wOBA Δ+0.005
Sample182 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances580----
Home Runs19----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3070.262 to 0.343+/- 0.041
ISO0.1740.122 to 0.245+/- 0.062
Barrel%6.6%4.2% to 8.9%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%47.8%42.9% to 56.7%+/- 6.9%
K%30.6%25.4% to 35.3%+/- 4.9%
BB%10.4%7.8% to 13.2%+/- 2.7%
BABIP0.2880.245 to 0.336+/- 0.045
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1180 career PA

xwOBA0.251
K%26.4%
BB%7.7%
Barrel3.5%
vs RHP

3029 career PA

xwOBA0.289
K%26.3%
BB%10.1%
Barrel6.2%