Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Walker, Christian
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 35
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.329 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.337 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.333 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.303
0.317
0.333
0.349
0.363
wOBA
0.345
0.363
0.384
0.404
0.422
ISO
0.196
0.212
0.230
0.248
0.264
K%
19.5%
20.9%
22.3%
23.8%
25.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.1%
41
Barrel%9.2%
90
Bat speed71.9
79
Exit velocity90.0
70
Hard-hit%44.8%
70
K%20.0%
62
+23 vs proj
xBA0.318
43
xSLG0.584
71
xwOBA0.337
73
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 1B
88
Range Runs2.4 · 1B
80
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.0 · 1B
40
Sprint Speed25.7 · 1B
15
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.2% · rebadged research
43
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.8% · rebadged research
78
Correct Decisions67.3% · rebadged research
61
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
59
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.320 · borderline
6
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.241 · insufficient sample
100
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290 · validated thin sample
18
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.338 · insufficient sample
33
Resists FastballwOBA 0.373 · validated
8
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379 · validated
11
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
176 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.007 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.054 |
| Sample | 260 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 577 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 25 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.330 | 0.275 to 0.372 | +/- 0.048 |
| ISO | 0.168 | 0.135 to 0.259 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 7.2% | 5.4% to 9.7% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.0% | 38.6% to 50.4% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 23.7% | 20.8% to 30.2% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 8.3% | 5.9% to 11.1% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.283 | 0.239 to 0.327 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
1101 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.279 |
| K% | 20.6% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 6.7% |
vs RHP
3001 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.281 |
| K% | 21.9% |
| BB% | 6.8% |
| Barrel | 7.0% |