Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Walker, Christian
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 35
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
55
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.329 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.304 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.313 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.287
0.299
0.313
0.326
0.338
wOBA
0.325
0.340
0.356
0.372
0.386
ISO
0.188
0.201
0.215
0.230
0.243
K%
21.2%
22.3%
23.5%
24.8%
25.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.8%
77
Exit velocity89.2
63
Hard-hit%41.6%
62
xBA0.302
28
xSLG0.519
54
xwOBA0.304
46
-25 vs proj
BB%8.0%
43
Bat speed72.0
79
K%22.8%
47
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
77
Range Runs1.1 · 1B
61
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · 1B
40
Sprint Speed25.9 · 1B
16
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.7% · rebadged research
40
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.6% · rebadged research
73
Correct Decisions66.6% · rebadged research
55
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
53
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.317 · borderline
8
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.246 · insufficient sample
100
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289 · validated thin sample
26
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample
46
Resists FastballwOBA 0.377 · validated
6
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371 · validated
22
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
194 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.026 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.026 |
| Sample | 413 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 577 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 25 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.330 | 0.275 to 0.372 | +/- 0.048 |
| ISO | 0.168 | 0.135 to 0.259 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 7.2% | 5.4% to 9.7% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.0% | 38.6% to 50.4% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 23.7% | 20.8% to 30.2% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 8.3% | 5.9% to 11.1% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.283 | 0.239 to 0.327 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
1101 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.279 |
| K% | 20.6% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 6.7% |
vs RHP
3001 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.281 |
| K% | 21.9% |
| BB% | 6.8% |
| Barrel | 7.0% |