Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026

Yelich, Christian

On-base driven regular with stable floor

Primary
0.338 xwOBA
Range
0.300 to 0.380
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced regular Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
50
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
50
Defense1 metrics
63
Speed2 metrics
39
Plate skills10 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.339
xwOBA current pace0.296
xwOBA rolling p500.314
Observed weight57%
xwOBA
0.288 0.301 0.314 0.328 0.340
wOBA
0.298 0.315 0.333 0.351 0.368
ISO
0.113 0.129 0.147 0.166 0.182
K%
23.1% 24.5% 26.0% 27.6% 28.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
41 -16 vs proj
Exit velocity87.5
42
Hard-hit%40.4%
57 -23 vs proj
xBA0.328
58
xSLG0.541
61
xwOBA0.296
39 -37 vs proj
BB%9.8%
65
Bat speed70.9
70
K%28.6%
20 -35 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
63 Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · DH
34
Sprint Speed27.2 · DH
44
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.5% · rebadged research
81
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.7% · rebadged research
18
Correct Decisions68.2% · rebadged research
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
63
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample
94
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.318 · validated thin sample
3
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.313 · insufficient sample
91
Resists FastballwOBA 0.368 · validated
11
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353 · validated
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
60
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Yelich, Christian · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.296 2026-07-05: 0.2952026-07-06: 0.2982026-07-07: 0.2962026-07-08: 0.2962026-07-09: 0.2972026-07-10: 0.2972026-07-11: 0.2972026-07-12: 0.2972026-07-13: 0.2962026-07-14: 0.2962026-07-15: 0.2962026-07-16: 0.296 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Christian Yelich's tools (76) outpace production (71) by 5 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High
-20.0° Current 40° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

104 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Yelich, Christian · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsPull 14%Center field third: 74% of plotted batted ballsCenter 74%Right field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsOppo 12% LF 344 CF 400 RF 345 2026-03-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.3 / LA -3.02026-03-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA -15.02026-03-18 · field out · FC · popup · EV 62.8 / LA 50.02026-03-18 · field out · FC · popup · EV 62.6 / LA 70.02026-03-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 54.0 / LA 8.02026-03-19 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 102.9 / LA 33.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA -1.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.7 / LA -41.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 83.6 / LA 10.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.8 / LA 27.02026-03-23 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 4.02026-03-23 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 89.8 / LA 17.02026-03-24 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 64.2 / LA 21.02026-03-26 · single · SV · line_drive · EV 100.8 / LA 16.02026-03-26 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 65.4 / LA -23.02026-03-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA 10.02026-03-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 1.02026-03-28 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA 1.02026-03-28 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 46.3 / LA -53.02026-03-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 6.02026-03-29 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 111.1 / LA 35.02026-03-30 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 1.02026-03-30 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 91.2 / LA -2.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 80.5 / LA 0.02026-03-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 72.1 / LA -36.02026-04-01 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 18.4 / LA -31.02026-04-01 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 110.2 / LA -16.02026-04-04 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.0 / LA -20.02026-04-04 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.9 / LA -17.02026-04-04 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.7 / LA 2.02026-04-04 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA -11.02026-04-04 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 55.0 / LA 23.02026-04-04 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 81.1 / LA -12.02026-04-05 · triple · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.4 / LA 26.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.9 / LA -9.02026-04-05 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA -13.02026-04-05 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 90.7 / LA 14.02026-04-06 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 36.02026-04-06 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA -10.02026-04-06 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.9 / LA -5.02026-04-07 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 4.02026-04-08 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA -31.02026-04-08 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 2.02026-04-08 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 33.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 34.02026-04-10 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 65.6 / LA -18.02026-04-10 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 84.4 / LA 3.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.5 / LA -26.02026-04-12 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.2 / LA -16.02026-04-12 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA -17.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 98.3 / LA 21.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.7 / LA -61.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 92.8 / LA 33.02026-05-17 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 105.7 / LA 29.02026-05-17 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 74.8 / LA 5.02026-05-17 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 87.4 / LA -18.02026-05-18 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 109.3 / LA 34.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -27.02026-05-18 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 71.1 / LA 47.02026-05-19 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 94.6 / LA -13.02026-05-19 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 83.0 / LA 23.02026-05-20 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 72.3 / LA 6.02026-05-20 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 78.4 / LA 43.02026-05-20 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 88.3 / LA 24.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.4 / LA 27.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · popup · EV 72.2 / LA 79.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 53.4 / LA 25.02026-05-23 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -13.02026-05-25 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA -5.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.6 / LA -42.02026-05-25 · home run · SL · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 27.02026-05-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.7 / LA 17.02026-05-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.2 / LA -2.02026-05-26 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 94.7 / LA 23.02026-05-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.1 / LA -23.02026-05-26 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 38.02026-05-27 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 80.5 / LA -10.02026-05-27 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 2.02026-05-27 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 90.6 / LA 27.02026-05-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 71.1 / LA -51.02026-06-01 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 4.02026-06-01 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 70.0 / LA 25.02026-06-01 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 107.1 / LA 16.02026-06-04 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 76.8 / LA -25.02026-06-04 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 74.8 / LA 39.02026-06-04 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 97.3 / LA 25.02026-06-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 80.0 / LA -3.02026-06-04 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 24.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -10.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 75.8 / LA -20.02026-06-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA -53.02026-06-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.1 / LA -33.02026-06-18 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 25.02026-06-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 0.02026-06-22 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 76.2 / LA -18.02026-06-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball2026-06-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 77.8 / LA 42.02026-06-24 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 42.02026-06-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.9 / LA -12.02026-06-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA -43.02026-06-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 2.02026-06-26 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 29.02026-06-26 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 95.9 / LA 21.02026-06-30 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 84.2 / LA 32.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Yelich, Christian · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 72.4 mph Hard swing rate 27% Whiff / swing 28% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Yelich, Christian · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 50%50%Chase: 23%23%Whiff: 29%29%Zone contact: 81%81%Contact: 71%71%Hard hit: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.304 vs 0.249 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
4
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.042
wOBA Δ-0.005
Sample297 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances585----
Home Runs22----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3380.300 to 0.380+/- 0.040
ISO0.1580.099 to 0.248+/- 0.075
Barrel%5.5%3.6% to 7.8%+/- 2.1%
Hard-Hit%45.8%42.3% to 53.7%+/- 5.7%
K%21.7%18.5% to 28.7%+/- 5.1%
BB%10.1%7.9% to 13.3%+/- 2.7%
BABIP0.3260.288 to 0.376+/- 0.044
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1826 career PA

xwOBA0.249
K%21.3%
BB%7.4%
Barrel3.6%
vs RHP

4525 career PA

xwOBA0.304
K%19.8%
BB%10.0%
Barrel5.5%