The Comp Constellation

Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 257 qualified hitters (334+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.

strong match (0.55+) moderate (0.45 to 0.55) weaker (< 0.45) star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles

Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Chapman, Matt in signal, the comp in amber.

SF · bats R · 364 PA

Ranked comps for Chapman, Matt

#PlayerSimilarityAgrees onDiffers onOpen
01 Herrera, Iván STL · R · 717 PA 0.73 Walk rateIsolated powerWhiff rate Sprint speed -1.5zBat speed -1.0zSweet-spot rate +0.8z
02 Sheets, Gavin SD · L · 431 PA 0.69 Avg exit velocityBarrel rateFly-ball rate Sprint speed -1.1zIn-zone contact +1.0zSweet-spot rate +1.0z
03 Springer, George TOR · R · 534 PA 0.68 Ground-ball ratePull rateWhiff rate Oppo rate -1.5zBat speed -1.2zSweet-spot rate +1.0z
04 Ortiz, Joey MIL · R · 435 PA 0.66 Hard-hit rateSwing lengthMax exit velocity Pull rate -1.5zIn-zone contact +1.1zChase rate +1.0z
05 Bogaerts, Xander SD · R · 619 PA 0.65 Sweet-spot rateIn-zone contactWhiff rate Bat speed -1.4zOppo rate -1.3zGround-ball rate +1.2z
06 Collins, Isaac KC · L · 524 PA 0.63 xwOBA on contactPull rateOppo rate Swing length -1.6zBat speed -1.4zIn-zone contact +1.0z
07 Realmuto, J.T. PHI · R · 476 PA 0.62 In-zone contactPull rateSprint speed Sweet-spot rate +2.1zBat speed -0.9zxwOBA on contact +0.9z
08 Taveras, Leody BAL · L · 496 PA 0.61 Max exit velocityGround-ball ratexwOBA on contact Bat speed -2.0zAvg exit velocity -1.4zChase rate +1.0z
09 Bazzana, Travis CLE · L · 521 PA 0.61 Hard-hit ratePull ratexwOBA on contact Bat speed -2.4zFly-ball rate +1.3zOppo rate -1.0z
10 Yelich, Christian MIL · L · 516 PA 0.61 Pull rateIsolated powerAvg exit velocity Ground-ball rate +1.8zxwOBA on contact +1.3zWhiff rate +1.1z
11 Butler, Lawrence ATH · L · 547 PA 0.60 Fly-ball ratePull rateMax exit velocity xwOBA on contact +1.6zSweet-spot rate +1.3zGround-ball rate +1.1z
12 Henderson, Gunnar BAL · L · 719 PA 0.60 Swing lengthStrikeout rateWhiff rate Oppo rate -1.7zSweet-spot rate +1.7zxwOBA on contact +1.1z

Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.