Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / CLE · 2026
Bailey, Patrick
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CLE
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
61
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.310 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.306 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.308 |
| Observed weight | 61% |
xwOBA
0.285
0.296
0.308
0.320
0.331
wOBA
0.252
0.267
0.283
0.299
0.314
ISO
0.096
0.108
0.122
0.136
0.149
K%
23.2%
24.4%
25.9%
27.3%
28.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
41
Exit velocity88.8
61
Hard-hit%41.5%
66
xBA0.341
76
xSLG0.554
67
xwOBA0.306
54
BB%8.3%
48
Bat speed70.1
57
K%25.6%
35
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.8 · C
7
Catcher Throwing3.5 · C
95
Framing Runs4.6 · C
86
Pop Time1.9 · C
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.3 · C
8
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.2% · rebadged research
38
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.3% · rebadged research
16
Correct Decisions64.6% · rebadged research
32
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
22
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · borderline
67
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
32
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.248 · validated thin sample
97
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.302 · insufficient sample
91
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328 · validated
71
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.323 · validated
97
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
147 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.001 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.022 |
| Sample | 351 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 482 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.305 | 0.281 to 0.346 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.145 | 0.088 to 0.209 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 4.7% | 2.8% to 7.1% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.7% | 34.2% to 46.0% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 23.7% | 21.1% to 31.4% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 4.6% to 10.1% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.256 to 0.344 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
351 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.240 |
| K% | 22.6% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 3.7% |
vs RHP
956 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.244 |
| K% | 21.2% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 3.6% |