Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / SD · 2026
Bogaerts, Xander
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team SD
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 34
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
48
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.321 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.315 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.317 |
| Observed weight | 63% |
xwOBA
0.294
0.305
0.317
0.329
0.340
wOBA
0.301
0.315
0.332
0.348
0.363
ISO
0.106
0.118
0.131
0.144
0.156
K%
16.5%
17.5%
18.6%
19.7%
20.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
45
Exit velocity88.5
54
Hard-hit%40.5%
57
+19 vs proj
xBA0.309
34
xSLG0.474
37
xwOBA0.315
58
BB%11.1%
76
+45 vs proj
Bat speed69.7
50
K%19.3%
69
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
62
Arm Strength85.8 · SS
45
Outs Above Avg7.0 · SS
94
Range Runs5.6 · SS
90
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · SS
48
SB Success Rate88.9% · SS
74
Sprint Speed27.1 · SS
42
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.4% · rebadged research
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4% · rebadged research
37
Correct Decisions67.9% · rebadged research
68
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
68
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · borderline
46
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
61
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
75
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
84
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
47
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
41
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
194 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.005 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.022 |
| Sample | 379 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 542 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.310 | 0.295 to 0.362 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.123 | 0.102 to 0.217 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 4.1% | 2.8% to 6.4% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.6% | 32.7% to 43.4% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 17.5% | 14.6% to 21.9% | +/- 3.7% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 5.5% to 10.3% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.297 | 0.273 to 0.343 | +/- 0.035 |
vs LHP
1719 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.284 |
| K% | 13.4% |
| BB% | 7.2% |
| Barrel | 5.1% |
vs RHP
5019 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.267 |
| K% | 14.9% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |