Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.303 vs 0.268 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
Herrera, Iván
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team STL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
52
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.354 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.345 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.348 |
| Observed weight | 66% |
xwOBA
0.326
0.337
0.348
0.360
0.370
wOBA
0.338
0.352
0.368
0.383
0.397
ISO
0.129
0.140
0.153
0.166
0.177
K%
14.9%
15.9%
17.0%
18.1%
19.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
37
-31 vs proj
Exit velocity89.1
61
Hard-hit%40.3%
56
-19 vs proj
xBA0.310
36
xSLG0.477
38
xwOBA0.345
83
BB%11.8%
83
+28 vs proj
Bat speed71.8
77
K%16.2%
83
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.2 · C
39
Catcher Throwing-3.2 · C
3
Framing Runs-0.2 · C
47
Pop Time2.0 · C
21
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.6 · DH
9
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
93
Sprint Speed25.9 · DH
16
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.1% · rebadged research
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0% · rebadged research
41
Correct Decisions66.1% · rebadged research
50
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
63
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline
34
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
28
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.314 · validated thin sample
3
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · insufficient sample
96
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360 · validated
16
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379 · validated
12
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
195 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.016 |
| Sample | 431 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 462 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.351 | 0.324 to 0.383 | +/- 0.029 |
| ISO | 0.158 | 0.116 to 0.232 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 6.2% | 4.4% to 8.7% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.7% | 41.8% to 50.9% | +/- 4.5% |
| K% | 18.9% | 15.5% to 24.3% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 9.0% | 7.4% to 12.3% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.319 | 0.285 to 0.351 | +/- 0.033 |
vs LHP
237 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.303 |
| K% | 13.8% |
| BB% | 9.1% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |
vs RHP
582 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 6.8% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |