Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment
Protected takes / Chase risk
Herrera, Iván
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.354 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.368 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.361 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Swing path and decision map
Iván Herrera's tools (80) outpace production (69) by 11 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.
Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs
Protected takes / Chase riskField-coordinate spray profile
169 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Projection notes
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.016 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.036 |
| Sample | 266 PA |
negative regression
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 462 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.351 | 0.324 to 0.383 | +/- 0.029 |
| ISO | 0.158 | 0.116 to 0.232 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 6.2% | 4.4% to 8.7% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.7% | 41.8% to 50.9% | +/- 4.5% |
| K% | 18.9% | 15.5% to 24.3% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 9.0% | 7.4% to 12.3% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.319 | 0.285 to 0.351 | +/- 0.033 |
237 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.303 |
| K% | 13.8% |
| BB% | 9.1% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |
582 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 6.8% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |