Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026

Arozarena, Randy

On-base driven regular with stable floor

Primary
0.335 xwOBA
Range
0.277 to 0.369
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Balanced regular Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.317
xwOBA current pace0.341
xwOBA rolling p500.331
Observed weight56%
xwOBA
0.302 0.316 0.331 0.346 0.360
wOBA
0.370 0.388 0.407 0.427 0.445
ISO
0.138 0.154 0.172 0.190 0.206
K%
21.5% 22.9% 24.4% 25.9% 27.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.3%
57
Barrel%5.0%
49 -26 vs proj
Bat speed68.5
34
Exit velocity90.7
80
Hard-hit%41.6%
58 -28 vs proj
K%22.9%
44
xBA0.355
78
xSLG0.556
63
xwOBA0.341
76
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · LF
21
Arm Strength90.7 · LF
32
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
8
Range Runs-1.4 · LF
28
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.3 · LF
98
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
93
Sprint Speed27.0 · LF
42
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.6% · rebadged research
41
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.8% · rebadged research
53
Correct Decisions64.6% · rebadged research
36
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
42
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · borderline
15
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · insufficient sample
6
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.320 · validated thin sample
2
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · insufficient sample
48
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
50
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated
16
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Arozarena, Randy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3282026-05-19: 0.3262026-05-21: 0.3252026-05-23: 0.3342026-05-24: 0.3342026-05-25: 0.3322026-05-26: 0.3352026-05-28: 0.3352026-05-29: 0.3362026-05-30: 0.3362026-05-31: 0.3392026-06-01: 0.341 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Randy Arozarena's tools (81) outpace production (73) by 8 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

Launch Angle Too Low
+20.2° Current -4° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Chase Rate Problem
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

170 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Arozarena, Randy · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsPull 14%Center field third: 68% of plotted batted ballsCenter 68%Right field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsOppo 18% LF 331 CF 401 RF 326 2026-03-15 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 41.02026-03-17 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 93.6 / LA 24.02026-03-17 · field out · FF · popup · EV 83.8 / LA 61.02026-03-18 · field out · FF · popup · EV 89.0 / LA 70.02026-03-18 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 32.02026-03-19 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 57.8 / LA -69.02026-03-19 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA -3.02026-03-20 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.1 / LA -15.02026-03-20 · field out · ST · popup · EV 80.4 / LA 83.02026-03-20 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 77.4 / LA 26.02026-03-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 52.1 / LA -59.02026-03-23 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 32.02026-03-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 70.6 / LA -69.02026-03-26 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 45.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 30.02026-03-26 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 106.4 / LA 8.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 109.6 / LA 14.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 92.5 / LA 18.02026-03-28 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 89.7 / LA -24.02026-03-28 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 108.3 / LA 2.02026-03-28 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 66.6 / LA -79.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 29.02026-03-29 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 87.7 / LA 24.02026-03-29 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA -13.02026-03-29 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 66.4 / LA -21.02026-03-30 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA -3.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.1 / LA -3.02026-03-30 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 108.1 / LA 0.02026-03-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA -3.02026-03-31 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 101.9 / LA 17.02026-03-31 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 47.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 76.5 / LA -17.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.0 / LA 0.02026-04-01 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.1 / LA 10.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA -5.02026-04-03 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 3.02026-04-03 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 91.4 / LA 18.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.7 / LA -7.02026-04-04 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 72.0 / LA -34.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 75.6 / LA -54.02026-04-04 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.3 / LA 12.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 51.2 / LA 22.02026-04-05 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA 7.02026-04-06 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 97.3 / LA 12.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 28.02026-04-07 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 93.5 / LA -11.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 57.02026-04-10 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 77.4 / LA 27.02026-04-10 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.6 / LA 34.02026-04-10 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 91.4 / LA -12.02026-04-11 · double play · FC · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 5.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.9 / LA -40.02026-04-12 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 55.8 / LA 11.02026-04-12 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 96.1 / LA 13.02026-04-12 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 89.7 / LA 15.02026-04-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 90.5 / LA 18.02026-04-13 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 41.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.5 / LA -11.02026-04-13 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 40.02026-04-13 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA -5.02026-04-14 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA -7.02026-04-14 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 85.2 / LA 16.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 84.6 / LA 54.02026-04-15 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 0.02026-04-15 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 0.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 81.7 / LA 7.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA 0.02026-04-16 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 34.02026-04-16 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 86.4 / LA -14.02026-04-16 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 61.4 / LA -50.02026-04-17 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 89.8 / LA -20.02026-04-17 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 88.9 / LA -20.02026-04-17 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 56.1 / LA -86.02026-04-18 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 92.6 / LA -5.02026-04-18 · single · SI · popup · EV 61.7 / LA 30.02026-04-19 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA -1.02026-04-19 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 113.0 / LA 12.02026-04-19 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 27.02026-04-20 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA -20.02026-04-21 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.6 / LA -19.02026-04-21 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 83.4 / LA 1.02026-04-21 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 37.0 / LA 16.02026-04-21 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 82.0 / LA 54.02026-04-22 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 90.7 / LA -27.02026-04-22 · field out · FS · popup · EV 87.5 / LA 65.02026-04-22 · sac fly · FF · line_drive · EV 89.1 / LA 20.02026-04-22 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 105.1 / LA 18.02026-04-24 · double · KC · line_drive · EV 95.5 / LA 19.02026-04-25 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 110.1 / LA 12.02026-04-25 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 85.6 / LA 31.02026-04-25 · sac fly · ST · line_drive · EV 91.4 / LA 21.02026-04-25 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 89.6 / LA 30.02026-04-25 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 7.02026-04-26 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 25.02026-04-27 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 63.9 / LA 28.02026-04-27 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 99.1 / LA 23.02026-04-28 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 93.9 / LA 19.02026-04-28 · triple · SI · line_drive · EV 108.7 / LA 14.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 43.02026-04-29 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA -7.02026-05-01 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.5 / LA 26.02026-05-02 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA -13.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.9 / LA 8.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.5 / LA 17.02026-05-03 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 84.1 / LA -9.02026-05-03 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.9 / LA -7.02026-05-04 · single · SI · ground_ball · LA -48.02026-05-04 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA -7.02026-05-04 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 36.02026-05-05 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 65.2 / LA 5.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -13.02026-05-06 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.8 / LA -6.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 80.9 / LA 1.02026-05-06 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -3.02026-05-08 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 85.1 / LA 22.02026-05-08 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 1.02026-05-08 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.7 / LA 4.02026-05-08 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.8 / LA -15.02026-05-09 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.4 / LA -7.02026-05-09 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 0.02026-05-10 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 6.02026-05-11 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA -23.02026-05-11 · single · SV · line_drive · EV 87.1 / LA 18.02026-05-11 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 104.4 / LA -3.02026-05-12 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 34.02026-05-12 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 94.5 / LA 22.02026-05-12 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 93.4 / LA 16.02026-05-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 9.02026-05-13 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA -1.02026-05-13 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA -2.02026-05-13 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 25.02026-05-14 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 84.9 / LA -43.02026-05-14 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 91.4 / LA 43.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA -7.02026-05-15 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 93.3 / LA 15.02026-05-15 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 29.02026-05-15 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 41.6 / LA 37.02026-05-16 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -3.02026-05-16 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 3.02026-05-17 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 54.02026-05-17 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 36.02026-05-17 · field error · CH · ground_ball · EV 81.2 / LA -28.02026-05-18 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 102.1 / LA 20.02026-05-18 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 101.9 / LA 22.02026-05-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 57.0 / LA -66.02026-05-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.7 / LA -40.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · popup · EV 90.1 / LA 68.02026-05-20 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 105.1 / LA 25.02026-05-22 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 81.9 / LA -18.02026-05-23 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 104.0 / LA 16.02026-05-23 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 26.02026-05-23 · field out · CH · popup · EV 84.1 / LA 58.02026-05-24 · double · SL · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA -6.02026-05-24 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 27.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.0 / LA -14.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.0 / LA -51.02026-05-25 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 98.5 / LA 23.02026-05-25 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 104.1 / LA 30.02026-05-25 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA -19.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 55.02026-05-26 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 103.4 / LA 12.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.5 / LA 60.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 70.4 / LA 17.02026-05-27 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 71.1 / LA 25.02026-05-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 2.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 30.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.4 / LA 8.02026-05-31 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.5 / LA -13.02026-05-31 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 87.6 / LA 27.02026-05-31 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 6.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Arozarena, Randy · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 26.4° Length 7.1 ft Ideal path 60% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Arozarena, Randy · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 8.2° Direction +4.9° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Arozarena, Randy · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 69.1 mph Hard swing rate 13% Whiff / swing 29% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Arozarena, Randy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 32%32%Whiff: 25%25%Zone contact: 77%77%Contact: 75%75%Hard hit: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.006
wOBA Δ+0.072
Sample279 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances665----
Home Runs24----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3350.277 to 0.369+/- 0.046
ISO0.1810.116 to 0.251+/- 0.067
Barrel%7.1%4.3% to 8.7%+/- 2.2%
Hard-Hit%48.3%42.6% to 54.3%+/- 5.8%
K%24.2%21.4% to 31.4%+/- 5.0%
BB%10.0%7.4% to 13.0%+/- 2.8%
BABIP0.2950.253 to 0.347+/- 0.047
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

993 career PA

xwOBA0.282
K%22.2%
BB%8.6%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHP

2659 career PA

xwOBA0.278
K%23.7%
BB%9.1%
Barrel5.4%