Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026
Arozarena, Randy
On-base driven regular with stable floor
Team SEA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
74
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.354 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.341 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.316
0.328
0.341
0.355
0.367
wOBA
0.374
0.389
0.406
0.422
0.437
ISO
0.148
0.161
0.176
0.192
0.205
K%
20.9%
22.1%
23.4%
24.7%
25.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
55
-24 vs proj
Exit velocity91.0
86
Hard-hit%42.2%
65
-22 vs proj
xBA0.357
83
xSLG0.575
71
xwOBA0.354
86
BB%9.9%
67
Bat speed68.8
37
K%21.8%
53
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.9 · LF
8
Arm Strength90.7 · LF
28
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · LF
6
Range Runs-2.6 · LF
21
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.8 · LF
94
SB Success Rate89.5% · LF
77
Sprint Speed26.9 · LF
37
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.4% · rebadged research
44
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4% · rebadged research
47
Correct Decisions64.7% · rebadged research
34
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.308 · borderline
15
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · insufficient sample
9
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.325 · validated thin sample
2
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · insufficient sample
36
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
46
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373 · validated
19
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
182 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.070 |
| Sample | 403 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 665 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 24 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.335 | 0.277 to 0.369 | +/- 0.046 |
| ISO | 0.181 | 0.116 to 0.251 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 7.1% | 4.3% to 8.7% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 48.3% | 42.6% to 54.3% | +/- 5.8% |
| K% | 24.2% | 21.4% to 31.4% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 10.0% | 7.4% to 13.0% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.295 | 0.253 to 0.347 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
993 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.282 |
| K% | 22.2% |
| BB% | 8.6% |
| Barrel | 5.9% |
vs RHP
2659 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.278 |
| K% | 23.7% |
| BB% | 9.1% |
| Barrel | 5.4% |