Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.300 vs 0.262 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / SF · 2026
Ramos, Heliot
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team SF
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.329 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.326 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.327 |
| Observed weight | 46% |
xwOBA
0.301
0.313
0.327
0.341
0.354
wOBA
0.304
0.325
0.348
0.372
0.393
ISO
0.135
0.152
0.171
0.190
0.207
K%
21.5%
23.1%
24.9%
26.7%
28.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.3%
15
-20 vs proj
Barrel%8.5%
86
Bat speed70.3
60
Exit velocity91.9
90
Hard-hit%49.6%
88
K%26.6%
29
-26 vs proj
xBA0.381
92
xSLG0.631
81
xwOBA0.326
65
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · LF
69
Arm Strength92.6 · LF
55
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
8
Range Runs-1.6 · LF
25
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · LF
50
Sprint Speed27.2 · LF
47
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.0% · rebadged research
16
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.8% · rebadged research
53
Correct Decisions64.0% · rebadged research
29
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · borderline
18
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · insufficient sample
84
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278 · validated thin sample
41
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · insufficient sample
25
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345 · validated
39
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349 · validated
71
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
18
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
128 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.004 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.019 |
| Sample | 188 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 612 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 21 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.329 | 0.307 to 0.371 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.177 | 0.130 to 0.251 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 7.0% | 5.0% to 9.4% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 47.2% | 42.8% to 55.6% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 21.2% | 17.8% to 28.4% | +/- 5.3% |
| BB% | 7.4% | 5.5% to 10.7% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.305 | 0.273 to 0.359 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
392 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.300 |
| K% | 20.1% |
| BB% | 7.2% |
| Barrel | 8.5% |
vs RHP
964 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.262 |
| K% | 19.6% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 5.4% |