Chapman, Matt
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
percentile
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.326 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.286 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.301 |
| Observed weight | 62% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Field-coordinate spray profile
188 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.047 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.013 |
| Sample | 364 PA |
negative regression
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 547 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 20 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.333 | 0.286 to 0.376 | +/- 0.045 |
| ISO | 0.208 | 0.138 to 0.273 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 7.3% | 4.7% to 9.4% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 47.9% | 43.3% to 56.5% | +/- 6.6% |
| K% | 24.7% | 20.1% to 30.5% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 10.2% | 7.4% to 13.3% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.245 to 0.337 | +/- 0.046 |
1254 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.296 |
| K% | 18.8% |
| BB% | 9.8% |
| Barrel | 6.3% |
3687 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.278 |
| K% | 22.4% |
| BB% | 9.0% |
| Barrel | 6.0% |