Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / SF · 2026

Chapman, Matt

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.333 xwOBA
Range
0.286 to 0.376
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Impact slugger Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.326
xwOBA current pace0.265
xwOBA rolling p500.293
Observed weight54%
xwOBA
0.265 0.279 0.293 0.308 0.322
wOBA
0.295 0.313 0.333 0.353 0.370
ISO
0.109 0.125 0.143 0.161 0.177
K%
20.4% 21.8% 23.4% 25.0% 26.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.3%
58
Barrel%3.9%
33 -44 vs proj
Bat speed73.9
94
Exit velocity87.4
37
Hard-hit%34.7%
27 -57 vs proj
K%21.4%
53 +18 vs proj
xBA0.279
16
xSLG0.392
14
xwOBA0.265
14 -56 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength88.3 · 3B
72
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 3B
88
Range Runs2.2 · 3B
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · 3B
36
Sprint Speed28.1 · 3B
72
SB Success Rate0.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.7% · rebadged research
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5% · rebadged research
45
Correct Decisions70.0% · rebadged research
83
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
78
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline
70
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
33
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.305 · validated thin sample
5
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.306 · insufficient sample
96
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated
69
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336 · validated
90
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Chapman, Matt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.2522026-05-19: 0.2532026-05-21: 0.2532026-05-23: 0.2582026-05-24: 0.2572026-05-25: 0.2592026-05-26: 0.2562026-05-28: 0.2602026-05-29: 0.2622026-05-30: 0.2622026-05-31: 0.2592026-06-01: 0.265 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

168 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Chapman, Matt · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 11% of plotted batted ballsPull 11%Center field third: 75% of plotted batted ballsCenter 75%Right field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsOppo 14% LF 339 CF 399 RF 309 2026-03-15 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.5 / LA 30.02026-03-15 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 98.5 / LA 23.02026-03-15 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 79.6 / LA 15.02026-03-18 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.4 / LA -4.02026-03-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 68.5 / LA -42.02026-03-18 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 72.8 / LA 32.02026-03-20 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 111.8 / LA 6.02026-03-20 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 108.7 / LA 24.02026-03-21 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 27.02026-03-21 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.5 / LA 28.02026-03-21 · field out · CU · popup · EV 65.3 / LA 75.02026-03-25 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 106.7 / LA 4.02026-03-25 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 31.02026-03-25 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA -17.02026-03-27 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 87.2 / LA -18.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.4 / LA -12.02026-03-28 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 109.6 / LA -4.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.2 / LA -63.02026-03-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.4 / LA 4.02026-03-30 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.5 / LA -15.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.7 / LA 1.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.2 / LA -58.02026-03-31 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 5.02026-03-31 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 80.6 / LA 22.02026-03-31 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 45.02026-03-31 · field out · ST · popup · EV 67.1 / LA 42.02026-04-01 · field out · ST · popup · EV 70.4 / LA 80.02026-04-02 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 89.1 / LA 24.02026-04-02 · single · SI · ground_ball2026-04-02 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 62.9 / LA 3.02026-04-02 · field out · FF · popup · EV 78.0 / LA 62.02026-04-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.7 / LA -4.02026-04-03 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -29.02026-04-03 · field out · FC · popup · EV 88.3 / LA 72.02026-04-03 · field out · SI · popup · EV 65.0 / LA 49.02026-04-04 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 62.2 / LA -49.02026-04-04 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 99.9 / LA -16.02026-04-04 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 37.7 / LA -73.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.9 / LA 47.02026-04-05 · grounded into double play · FO · ground_ball · EV 86.7 / LA -5.02026-04-05 · double · FO · line_drive · EV 104.8 / LA 14.02026-04-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 91.8 / LA 8.02026-04-06 · triple · CU · fly_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 24.02026-04-06 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 78.2 / LA -24.02026-04-06 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 113.0 / LA 5.02026-04-07 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.3 / LA -13.02026-04-07 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 88.3 / LA 13.02026-04-07 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 111.7 / LA 15.02026-04-08 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 106.5 / LA 6.02026-04-10 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 101.0 / LA -10.02026-04-10 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 78.5 / LA 22.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.1 / LA 44.02026-04-10 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 109.8 / LA 9.02026-04-11 · field out · ST · popup · EV 65.1 / LA 73.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA -20.02026-04-11 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 53.7 / LA -70.02026-04-11 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 77.7 / LA 3.02026-04-12 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 72.5 / LA -28.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 90.5 / LA 17.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 45.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 108.1 / LA 6.02026-04-14 · field error · ST · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA -24.02026-04-14 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.5 / LA -2.02026-04-14 · grounded into double play · SV · ground_ball · EV 86.0 / LA -7.02026-04-15 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 82.1 / LA 18.02026-04-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA -2.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 92.4 / LA 24.02026-04-15 · double play · FC · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 7.02026-04-16 · field out · FF · popup · EV 67.9 / LA 82.02026-04-16 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 109.1 / LA 17.02026-04-17 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA -22.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.4 / LA 36.02026-04-17 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 92.8 / LA 15.02026-04-17 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.5 / LA 6.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 67.9 / LA -45.02026-04-18 · fielders choice · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.1 / LA -21.02026-04-18 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 13.02026-04-18 · field out · SL · popup · EV 73.8 / LA 63.02026-04-18 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 85.9 / LA 48.02026-04-18 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 108.5 / LA -2.02026-04-19 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 55.0 / LA -60.02026-04-19 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 42.9 / LA 29.02026-04-19 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 109.2 / LA -28.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball2026-04-21 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 90.7 / LA -5.02026-04-22 · field out · ST · popup · EV 86.7 / LA 57.02026-04-22 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 76.6 / LA 1.02026-04-23 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 77.0 / LA -23.02026-04-23 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 42.02026-04-24 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 75.0 / LA 26.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 66.3 / LA -64.02026-04-24 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 72.4 / LA -19.02026-04-24 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 108.3 / LA -21.02026-04-25 · double · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 6.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.2 / LA -22.02026-04-30 · field out · SI · popup · EV 73.6 / LA 71.02026-04-30 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 27.02026-04-30 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 62.9 / LA 17.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.5 / LA -14.02026-04-30 · field out · FC · popup · EV 83.9 / LA 73.02026-05-01 · field out · CH · popup · EV 68.0 / LA 63.02026-05-01 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 102.9 / LA 18.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 66.4 / LA -3.02026-05-03 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 20.02026-05-03 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 45.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.3 / LA -11.02026-05-03 · field out · CH · popup · EV 67.0 / LA 82.02026-05-05 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 28.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.0 / LA -26.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.0 / LA -22.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 51.02026-05-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -36.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.3 / LA -28.02026-05-08 · fielders choice out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.4 / LA -30.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.5 / LA 8.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 78.3 / LA 36.02026-05-09 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.4 / LA 1.02026-05-09 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 93.6 / LA -36.02026-05-10 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 35.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.4 / LA 33.02026-05-10 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 25.02026-05-10 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 74.9 / LA 39.02026-05-11 · fielders choice out · ST · ground_ball · EV 82.6 / LA 2.02026-05-11 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 86.8 / LA -24.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · popup · EV 62.4 / LA 49.02026-05-13 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 32.02026-05-13 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 95.3 / LA 14.02026-05-14 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 54.02026-05-15 · field out · SI · popup · EV 61.3 / LA 67.02026-05-15 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 50.1 / LA -66.02026-05-15 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 94.3 / LA 31.02026-05-16 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 71.4 / LA 45.02026-05-16 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 93.7 / LA 11.02026-05-16 · fielders choice · FC · ground_ball · EV 78.0 / LA -9.02026-05-17 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 95.5 / LA 20.02026-05-17 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 77.0 / LA -33.02026-05-17 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 108.0 / LA 18.02026-05-18 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 106.3 / LA 1.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 3.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · popup · EV 72.9 / LA 61.02026-05-19 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 109.3 / LA 1.02026-05-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 50.02026-05-20 · field out · SL · popup · EV 82.5 / LA 68.02026-05-20 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 110.0 / LA 0.02026-05-20 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 77.4 / LA 17.02026-05-20 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 55.6 / LA -65.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.5 / LA -13.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.8 / LA -12.02026-05-22 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 101.5 / LA 9.02026-05-23 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA -5.02026-05-23 · double · ST · popup · EV 83.0 / LA 67.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · popup · EV 90.9 / LA 66.02026-05-24 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 108.6 / LA 7.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.3 / LA -25.02026-05-24 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 104.8 / LA 14.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · popup · EV 72.5 / LA 56.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 69.6 / LA 48.02026-05-25 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.7 / LA -38.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · popup · EV 84.5 / LA 80.02026-05-27 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 60.0 / LA 17.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 77.8 / LA 84.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 63.1 / LA 7.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 32.02026-05-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA -4.02026-05-31 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 82.1 / LA 54.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 38.02026-05-31 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 103.1 / LA 22.02026-05-31 · force out · SL · ground_ball · LA -61.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Chapman, Matt · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 26.6° Length 7.3 ft Ideal path 37% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Chapman, Matt · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 2.9° Direction -1.1° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Chapman, Matt · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 75.3 mph Hard swing rate 57% Whiff / swing 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Chapman, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 50%50%Chase: 25%25%Whiff: 21%21%Zone contact: 85%85%Contact: 79%79%Hard hit: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.067
wOBA Δ+0.000
Sample257 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances547----
Home Runs20----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3330.286 to 0.376+/- 0.045
ISO0.2080.138 to 0.273+/- 0.067
Barrel%7.3%4.7% to 9.4%+/- 2.3%
Hard-Hit%47.9%43.3% to 56.5%+/- 6.6%
K%24.7%20.1% to 30.5%+/- 5.2%
BB%10.2%7.4% to 13.3%+/- 3.0%
BABIP0.2890.245 to 0.337+/- 0.046
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1254 career PA

xwOBA0.296
K%18.8%
BB%9.8%
Barrel6.3%
vs RHP

3687 career PA

xwOBA0.278
K%22.4%
BB%9.0%
Barrel6.0%