Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	645	68	137	20	4	.242	.325	.397	.722
2025	586	62	109	20	3	.214	.312	.381	.693
2026	225	23	44	9	3	.214	.277	.379	.656
10 Seasons	4234	492	889	153	34	.237	.320	.414	.734

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16

81

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

67

Defense3 metrics

67

Speed1 metrics

16

Plate skills10 metrics

51

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16

xwOBA preseason	0.298
xwOBA current pace	0.310
xwOBA rolling p50	0.304
Observed weight	53%

xwOBA

0.277 0.290 0.304 0.319 0.332

wOBA

0.280 0.298 0.318 0.338 0.356

ISO

0.135 0.151 0.169 0.186 0.202

K%

28.4% 29.9% 31.5% 33.2% 34.6%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%7.3%

81

Exit velocity90.9

85

Hard-hit%51.0%

93

xBA0.366

87

xSLG0.634

84

xwOBA0.310

53

BB%7.3%

35 -36 vs proj

Bat speed71.6

76

K%31.8%

9

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Strength86.8 · 3B

51

Outs Above Avg2.0 · 3B

77

Range Runs2.0 · 3B

71

Baserunning · percentile strip

Sprint Speed25.9 · 3B

16

SB Success Rate75.0% · 3B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-16

Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.8% · rebadged research

57

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.8% · rebadged research

8

Correct Decisions65.1% · rebadged research

40

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.262 · borderline

93

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample

82

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286 · validated thin sample

35

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · insufficient sample

82

Resists FastballwOBA 0.326 · validated

74

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371 · validated

21

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95

23

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Ryan Mcmahon's tools (81) outpace production (79) by 2 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-9.7° Current 30° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

113 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.2σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.318

xwOBA (deserved)0.310

Mcmahon’s wOBA sits at 0.318, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.310 — a gap of 0.007, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 245 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
García, Adolis PHI · R	0.75	Strikeout rateOppo rate	Player · Projection
Alvarez, Francisco NYM · R	0.75	Walk rateIsolated power	Player · Projection
Burger, Jake TEX · R	0.74	Walk rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection
Vientos, Mark NYM · R	0.74	Barrel rateBat speed	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	6	2026-07-11	Impact contact was the main driver

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.307 xwOBA \| 19 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K
2026-04-17 vs KC1 HR \| 2 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-1 \| HR, 2 RBI, R
2026-04-15 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K
2026-04-14 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-2
2026-04-13 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| BB

Age	31
Height	6' 2"
Weight	211 lb
Debut	2017-08-12

xwOBA Δ	+0.003
wOBA Δ	+0.010

Hitter Projections 20260.307 xwOBA \| 19 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K
2026-04-17 vs KC1 HR \| 2 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-1 \| HR, 2 RBI, R
2026-04-15 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K
2026-04-14 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-2
2026-04-13 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| BB

Ryan Mcmahon

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail