The Comp Constellation
Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 264 qualified hitters (202+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.
strong match (0.55+)
moderate (0.45 to 0.55)
weaker (< 0.45)
star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles
Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Devers, Rafael in signal, the comp in amber.
SF · bats L · 415 PA
Ranked comps for Devers, Rafael
| # | Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Differs on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Pederson, Joc TEX · L · 311 PA | 0.80 | Isolated powerOppo rateChase rate | Fly-ball rate -1.1zIn-zone contact +0.9zSprint speed -0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 02 | Okamoto, Kazuma TOR · R · 395 PA | 0.74 | Isolated powerGround-ball rateMax exit velocity | Pull rate +1.7zSwing length +1.0zOppo rate -0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 03 | McMahon, Ryan NYY · L · 245 PA | 0.73 | Hard-hit rateMax exit velocityBarrel rate | In-zone contact +1.3zIsolated power -1.2zStrikeout rate +0.7z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 04 | Alonso, Pete BAL · R · 442 PA | 0.70 | Whiff ratePull rateBarrel rate | In-zone contact +1.4zBat speed +0.9zWalk rate +0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 05 | Carpenter, Kerry DET · L · 255 PA | 0.69 | Bat speedSwing lengthHard-hit rate | Fly-ball rate +1.1zGround-ball rate -1.1zPull rate +1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 06 | Olson, Matt ATL · L · 435 PA | 0.69 | Walk rateOppo rateSwing length | In-zone contact +1.8zWhiff rate -1.0zBat speed +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 07 | Greene, Riley DET · L · 423 PA | 0.69 | Max exit velocityStrikeout rateWhiff rate | In-zone contact +1.4zBat speed +1.2zWalk rate +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 08 | Hernández, Teoscar LAD · R · 271 PA | 0.68 | Bat speedxwOBA on contactBarrel rate | Sprint speed +1.7zOppo rate +1.1zIsolated power -0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 09 | Rooker, Brent ATH · R · 215 PA | 0.65 | Pull rateWalk rateIn-zone contact | Whiff rate +1.3zSprint speed +1.1zFly-ball rate +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 10 | Machado, Manny SD · R · 401 PA | 0.64 | Max exit velocityChase rateIsolated power | In-zone contact +1.3zFly-ball rate -1.1zSwing length +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 11 | Vientos, Mark NYM · R · 269 PA | 0.63 | Swing lengthBarrel rateSprint speed | Walk rate -1.4zChase rate +1.3zIsolated power -0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 12 | Eldridge, Bryce SF · L · 225 PA | 0.62 | Avg exit velocityGround-ball rateBarrel rate | In-zone contact +2.1zWalk rate +1.4zPull rate +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.