Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Carroll, Corbin
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team AZ
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
80
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.347 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.343 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.344 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.319
0.331
0.344
0.358
0.370
wOBA
0.348
0.362
0.378
0.395
0.409
ISO
0.199
0.213
0.228
0.244
0.258
K%
20.4%
21.5%
22.8%
24.0%
25.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.3%
80
Exit velocity91.5
89
Hard-hit%47.9%
85
xBA0.341
69
xSLG0.599
76
xwOBA0.343
81
BB%11.9%
84
Bat speed74.3
96
K%23.5%
43
-19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-3.2 · RF
1
Arm Strength86.9 · RF
8
Outs Above Avg8.0 · RF
99
Range Runs7.6 · RF
97
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.0 · RF
97
Bolts40.0 · RF
94
SB Success Rate81.8% · RF
50
Sprint Speed29.7 · RF
98
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.0% · rebadged research
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5% · rebadged research
57
Correct Decisions66.3% · rebadged research
51
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
59
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · borderline
5
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.305 · insufficient sample
6
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample
45
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.311 · insufficient sample
94
Resists FastballwOBA 0.401 · validated
2
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.399 · validated
4
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
182 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.014 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.022 |
| Sample | 413 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 605 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 23 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.357 | 0.300 to 0.394 | +/- 0.047 |
| ISO | 0.223 | 0.168 to 0.307 | +/- 0.069 |
| Barrel% | 7.3% | 4.6% to 9.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.9% | 37.8% to 51.8% | +/- 7.0% |
| K% | 20.5% | 16.6% to 25.8% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 10.8% | 8.6% to 13.4% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.263 to 0.344 | +/- 0.041 |
vs LHP
673 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.288 |
| K% | 17.2% |
| BB% | 7.4% |
| Barrel | 5.1% |
vs RHP
1591 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.310 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 10.1% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |