Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Burger, Jake
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team TEX
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
69
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.309 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.312 |
| Observed weight | 64% |
xwOBA
0.289
0.300
0.312
0.323
0.334
wOBA
0.314
0.329
0.345
0.361
0.376
ISO
0.162
0.175
0.189
0.203
0.216
K%
23.3%
24.5%
25.9%
27.3%
28.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
75
Exit velocity90.0
73
Hard-hit%46.8%
83
xBA0.333
63
xSLG0.573
70
xwOBA0.309
52
BB%7.9%
42
+27 vs proj
Bat speed73.2
91
K%26.2%
30
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
77
Range Runs1.3 · 1B
63
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · 1B
38
Sprint Speed27.3 · 1B
48
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.8% · rebadged research
27
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7% · rebadged research
55
Correct Decisions63.2% · rebadged research
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · borderline
74
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.308 · insufficient sample
4
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.310 · validated thin sample
6
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · insufficient sample
76
Resists FastballwOBA 0.300 · validated
97
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.393 · validated
5
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
181 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.012 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.025 |
| Sample | 390 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 460 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 22 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.320 | 0.299 to 0.364 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.193 | 0.143 to 0.266 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 8.2% | 5.9% to 10.7% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 47.2% | 42.1% to 54.5% | +/- 6.2% |
| K% | 24.8% | 21.4% to 31.9% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 5.4% | 3.5% to 8.0% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.285 | 0.235 to 0.332 | +/- 0.048 |
vs LHP
510 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.280 |
| K% | 20.0% |
| BB% | 4.7% |
| Barrel | 7.5% |
vs RHP
1305 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 22.6% |
| BB% | 3.7% |
| Barrel | 7.4% |