Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Burger, Jake
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team TEX
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.311 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.314 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.289
0.300
0.314
0.327
0.339
wOBA
0.321
0.340
0.360
0.381
0.399
ISO
0.161
0.177
0.194
0.212
0.228
K%
22.9%
24.3%
26.0%
27.6%
29.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.8%
26
Barrel%6.4%
68
-15 vs proj
Bat speed72.4
83
Exit velocity90.6
79
Hard-hit%48.8%
87
K%26.4%
29
xBA0.347
72
xSLG0.588
72
xwOBA0.311
52
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
71
Range Runs0.6 · 1B
56
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · 1B
52
Sprint Speed27.2 · 1B
47
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.0% · rebadged research
25
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3% · rebadged research
48
Correct Decisions62.8% · rebadged research
19
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
76
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.310 · insufficient sample
3
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.306 · validated thin sample
4
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
81
Resists FastballwOBA 0.296 · validated
98
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.404 · validated
2
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
157 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.009 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.040 |
| Sample | 250 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 460 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 22 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.320 | 0.299 to 0.364 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.193 | 0.144 to 0.266 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 8.2% | 5.9% to 10.7% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 47.2% | 42.1% to 54.5% | +/- 6.2% |
| K% | 24.8% | 21.4% to 31.9% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 5.4% | 3.5% to 8.0% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.285 | 0.236 to 0.332 | +/- 0.048 |
vs LHP
510 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.280 |
| K% | 20.0% |
| BB% | 4.7% |
| Barrel | 7.5% |
vs RHP
1305 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 22.6% |
| BB% | 3.7% |
| Barrel | 7.4% |