Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026
Alvarez, Francisco
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team NYM
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
86
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.312 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.323 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.319 |
| Observed weight | 66% |
xwOBA
0.295
0.307
0.319
0.332
0.343
wOBA
0.304
0.317
0.333
0.348
0.362
ISO
0.141
0.153
0.167
0.180
0.192
K%
26.1%
27.5%
29.0%
30.5%
31.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.9%
94
+20 vs proj
Exit velocity90.7
86
Hard-hit%47.0%
87
xBA0.353
84
xSLG0.663
91
xwOBA0.323
71
BB%9.1%
57
Bat speed72.5
85
K%30.4%
16
-17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-2.3 · C
3
Catcher Throwing0.9 · C
69
Framing Runs2.0 · C
69
Pop Time1.9 · C
70
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.4 · C
9
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.5% · rebadged research
51
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.2% · rebadged research
48
Correct Decisions64.5% · rebadged research
32
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
50
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
78
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
75
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302 · validated thin sample
12
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · insufficient sample
59
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333 · validated
60
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
68
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
168 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.011 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.021 |
| Sample | 428 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 380 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.312 | 0.283 to 0.367 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.184 | 0.131 to 0.251 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 6.4% | 4.1% to 9.2% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.3% | 40.7% to 55.2% | +/- 7.2% |
| K% | 26.0% | 20.3% to 33.0% | +/- 6.4% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 6.6% to 12.7% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.285 | 0.228 to 0.333 | +/- 0.052 |
vs LHP
319 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.263 |
| K% | 18.0% |
| BB% | 9.4% |
| Barrel | 6.7% |
vs RHP
823 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 21.1% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |