Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Hernández, Heriberto
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
87
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.320 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.344 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.337 |
| Observed weight | 70% |
xwOBA
0.313
0.324
0.337
0.350
0.361
wOBA
0.322
0.335
0.350
0.364
0.377
ISO
0.166
0.180
0.195
0.210
0.224
K%
23.8%
25.0%
26.2%
27.5%
28.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.5%
85
+20 vs proj
Exit velocity91.4
90
Hard-hit%47.8%
88
+17 vs proj
xBA0.344
78
xSLG0.663
92
xwOBA0.344
89
+17 vs proj
BB%10.9%
79
+27 vs proj
Bat speed72.0
80
K%26.5%
29
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.7 · LF
15
Arm Strength98.7 · LF
85
Outs Above Avg2.0 · LF
88
Range Runs1.7 · LF
69
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.4 · LF
23
SB Success Rate62.5% · LF
14
Sprint Speed28.3 · LF
75
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.1% · rebadged research
86
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.6% · rebadged research
88
Correct Decisions71.3% · rebadged research
91
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
93
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.344 · borderline
1
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
38
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
79
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
81
Resists FastballwOBA 0.303 · validated
96
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
74
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
190 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.021 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.026 |
| Sample | 506 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 350 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.324 | 0.266 to 0.365 | +/- 0.050 |
| ISO | 0.170 | 0.105 to 0.262 | +/- 0.079 |
| Barrel% | 5.8% | 3.1% to 9.0% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.7% | 32.3% to 52.0% | +/- 9.9% |
| K% | 25.3% | 18.6% to 29.1% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 6.5% to 12.5% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.304 | 0.273 to 0.355 | +/- 0.041 |
vs LHP
126 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.191 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 6.7% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |
vs RHP
178 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.184 |
| K% | 14.3% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |