Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026

Pederson, Joc

On-base driven regular with stable floor

Primary
0.342 xwOBA
Range
0.280 to 0.381
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Balanced regular Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.341
xwOBA current pace0.343
xwOBA rolling p500.342
Observed weight46%
xwOBA
0.308 0.324 0.342 0.359 0.376
wOBA
0.330 0.352 0.375 0.399 0.420
ISO
0.149 0.167 0.187 0.207 0.225
K%
19.8% 21.6% 23.6% 25.6% 27.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%13.7%
90 +19 vs proj
Barrel%5.8%
60
Bat speed69.4
46
Exit velocity91.0
84
Hard-hit%48.2%
85
K%24.2%
37
xBA0.328
57
xSLG0.541
60
xwOBA0.343
76
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · 1B
Limited
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B · small sample regression applied
59 Regression applied
Range Runs-0.4 · 1B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.6 · DH
13
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.3% · rebadged research
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7% · rebadged research
44
Correct Decisions67.9% · rebadged research
67
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.328 · borderline
4
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.248 · insufficient sample
99
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261 · validated thin sample
87
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
42
Resists FastballwOBA 0.376 · validated
7
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
49
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
70
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Pederson, Joc · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3372026-05-19: 0.3402026-05-21: 0.3422026-05-23: 0.3402026-05-24: 0.3452026-05-25: 0.3432026-05-26: 0.3452026-05-28: 0.3582026-05-29: 0.3562026-05-30: 0.3512026-05-31: 0.3472026-06-01: 0.343 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

107 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Pederson, Joc · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 16% of plotted batted ballsPull 16%Center field third: 64% of plotted batted ballsCenter 64%Right field third: 20% of plotted batted ballsOppo 20% LF 329 CF 407 RF 326 2026-03-15 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 5.02026-03-19 · field out · CU · popup2026-03-19 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.8 / LA 9.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 53.02026-03-20 · field out · SV · fly_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 36.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · popup · EV 95.8 / LA 73.02026-03-24 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.3 / LA 24.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 58.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 109.7 / LA -28.02026-03-30 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 45.02026-03-30 · sac fly · SI · line_drive · EV 99.3 / LA 20.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · popup · EV 88.7 / LA 70.02026-03-31 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 23.02026-04-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.0 / LA 2.02026-04-03 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 45.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.3 / LA 32.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 36.02026-04-04 · grounded into double play · FS · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA -1.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.7 / LA 57.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · popup · EV 97.0 / LA 79.02026-04-05 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 41.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 31.02026-04-06 · double · FS · fly_ball · EV 76.5 / LA 38.02026-04-07 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA -17.02026-04-07 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 71.7 / LA -46.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA -7.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.6 / LA 38.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.2 / LA 31.02026-04-10 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.8 / LA -6.02026-04-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 95.8 / LA 14.02026-04-12 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 72.6 / LA -24.02026-04-13 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 10.02026-04-13 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 69.8 / LA 44.02026-04-13 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.9 / LA -13.02026-04-13 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 77.6 / LA -31.02026-04-14 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 77.0 / LA 34.02026-04-16 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 93.6 / LA 14.02026-04-17 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 90.4 / LA 17.02026-04-18 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA -12.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 97.2 / LA 9.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.7 / LA 5.02026-04-21 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 109.4 / LA 12.02026-04-22 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 89.6 / LA 5.02026-04-23 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 32.02026-04-23 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 80.7 / LA 15.02026-04-24 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 6.02026-04-25 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 86.7 / LA 47.02026-04-26 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.0 / LA -5.02026-04-26 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.8 / LA 52.02026-04-27 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 108.2 / LA 27.02026-04-27 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 81.7 / LA -13.02026-04-28 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 24.1 / LA 10.02026-04-28 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 101.1 / LA 21.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · popup · EV 81.7 / LA 56.02026-04-29 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.1 / LA -2.02026-04-29 · single · FS · fly_ball · EV 72.6 / LA 32.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 103.9 / LA 21.02026-04-29 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 88.5 / LA 57.02026-05-01 · sac fly · SI · fly_ball · EV 81.3 / LA 34.02026-05-01 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 93.6 / LA -20.02026-05-01 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 89.0 / LA 11.02026-05-01 · force out · KC · ground_ball · EV 91.2 / LA -27.02026-05-02 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 17.02026-05-02 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 87.1 / LA 42.02026-05-02 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 55.4 / LA -60.02026-05-05 · sac fly · SI · fly_ball · EV 103.1 / LA 34.02026-05-05 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.3 / LA -12.02026-05-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.7 / LA -16.02026-05-07 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 107.3 / LA 12.02026-05-09 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 96.4 / LA 13.02026-05-09 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 94.8 / LA 19.02026-05-10 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 110.6 / LA 18.02026-05-10 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 4.02026-05-11 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 79.9 / LA 7.02026-05-12 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.1 / LA 26.02026-05-12 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 83.8 / LA 26.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 102.2 / LA 9.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 51.02026-05-13 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 84.0 / LA 33.02026-05-13 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 35.02026-05-16 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 57.0 / LA -32.02026-05-16 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.4 / LA 3.02026-05-19 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.3 / LA 4.02026-05-19 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 97.0 / LA 6.02026-05-19 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 105.5 / LA 19.02026-05-19 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 69.7 / LA 11.02026-05-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA -4.02026-05-20 · field out · FC · popup · EV 78.6 / LA 74.02026-05-22 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.1 / LA 61.02026-05-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 74.7 / LA -6.02026-05-23 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA -3.02026-05-23 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 11.02026-05-23 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 79.5 / LA 14.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA -40.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 6.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 59.5 / LA 28.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · popup · EV 72.6 / LA 76.02026-05-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 3.02026-05-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA -7.02026-05-26 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 33.02026-05-27 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 10.02026-05-27 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 103.3 / LA 32.02026-05-27 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 90.7 / LA -5.02026-05-27 · home run · ST · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 21.02026-05-31 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 85.4 / LA 5.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.2 / LA -11.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 32.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Pederson, Joc · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 27.5° Length 7.5 ft Ideal path 49% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Pederson, Joc · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 9.3° Direction -0.9° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Pederson, Joc · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 71.9 mph Hard swing rate 20% Whiff / swing 37% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Pederson, Joc · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 49%49%Chase: 26%26%Whiff: 31%31%Zone contact: 80%80%Contact: 69%69%Hard hit: 48%48% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.281 vs 0.244 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
4
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.001
wOBA Δ+0.034
Sample190 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances408----
Home Runs16----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3420.280 to 0.381+/- 0.051
ISO0.1800.133 to 0.259+/- 0.063
Barrel%6.7%4.5% to 9.5%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%45.3%40.7% to 55.9%+/- 7.6%
K%23.4%18.0% to 30.3%+/- 6.2%
BB%10.8%7.5% to 13.9%+/- 3.2%
BABIP0.2660.205 to 0.313+/- 0.054
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

728 career PA

xwOBA0.244
K%21.9%
BB%10.2%
Barrel3.7%
vs RHP

4176 career PA

xwOBA0.281
K%17.3%
BB%9.1%
Barrel6.1%