The Comp Constellation

Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 257 qualified hitters (334+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.

strong match (0.55+) moderate (0.45 to 0.55) weaker (< 0.45) star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles

Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Riley, Austin in signal, the comp in amber.

ATL · bats R · 640 PA

Ranked comps for Riley, Austin

#PlayerSimilarityAgrees onDiffers onOpen
01 Baty, Brett NYM · L · 482 PA 0.81 xwOBA on contactSwing lengthHard-hit rate Strikeout rate -0.9zSprint speed -0.8zWalk rate +0.7z Player Projection Swing lab
02 Crews, Dylan WSH · R · 445 PA 0.78 Chase rateMax exit velocitySwing length Strikeout rate -1.1zSprint speed +1.1zOppo rate -0.7z Player Projection Swing lab
03 Hernández, Teoscar LAD · R · 505 PA 0.77 Sweet-spot rateMax exit velocityHard-hit rate Ground-ball rate +1.2zBat speed -1.1zPull rate -0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
04 Lewis, Royce MIN · R · 524 PA 0.77 In-zone contactMax exit velocityWalk rate Swing length +1.2zStrikeout rate -1.0zPull rate +0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
05 McMahon, Ryan NYY · L · 381 PA 0.75 Fly-ball rateMax exit velocityOppo rate Sprint speed -1.5zGround-ball rate +0.8zBarrel rate -0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
06 Burger, Jake TEX · R · 629 PA 0.70 Bat speedBarrel rateSwing length Sweet-spot rate -1.5zGround-ball rate +1.2zPull rate +0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
07 Merrill, Jackson SD · L · 678 PA 0.70 Oppo rateFly-ball rateSwing length Strikeout rate -1.2zSweet-spot rate +1.2zChase rate +0.9z Player Projection Swing lab
08 Cowser, Colton BAL · L · 411 PA 0.66 Strikeout ratexwOBA on contactPull rate Walk rate +1.5zAvg exit velocity -1.5zBarrel rate -1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
09 Alvarez, Francisco NYM · R · 428 PA 0.65 Chase rateStrikeout rateAvg exit velocity Sprint speed -1.9zGround-ball rate +1.6zFly-ball rate -0.7z Player Projection Swing lab
10 Smith, Cam HOU · R · 572 PA 0.65 Hard-hit rateBarrel rateIn-zone contact Ground-ball rate +1.5zSprint speed +1.0zAvg exit velocity -0.9z Player Projection Swing lab
11 Lowe, Josh LAA · L · 357 PA 0.65 Oppo rateWhiff rateStrikeout rate In-zone contact -1.4zAvg exit velocity -1.3zBat speed -1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
12 Castro, Willi COL · L · 498 PA 0.65 Isolated powerFly-ball rateSprint speed Avg exit velocity -1.6zPull rate +1.2zBarrel rate -1.1z Player Projection Swing lab

Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.