Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 23 |
| Height | 6' 3" |
| Weight | 224 lb |
| Debut | 2025-03-27 |
Player profile / Houston Astros
Cam Smith
RF · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 224 lb · Age 23
Club Houston Astros
Position RF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 493 | 55 | 104 | 9 | 8 | .236 | .312 | .358 | .670 |
| 2026 | 361 | 39 | 70 | 12 | 9 | .218 | .292 | .377 | .669 |
| 2 Seasons | 854 | 94 | 174 | 21 | 17 | .228 | .304 | .366 | .670 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
78
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.325 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.340 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.334 |
| Observed weight | 63% |
xwOBA
0.310
0.321
0.334
0.347
0.359
wOBA
0.283
0.297
0.313
0.330
0.344
ISO
0.132
0.145
0.160
0.174
0.187
K%
21.2%
22.4%
23.7%
25.0%
26.2%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.6%
88
+40 vs proj
Exit velocity89.5
67
Hard-hit%45.7%
79
+16 vs proj
xBA0.346
75
xSLG0.625
83
xwOBA0.340
77
BB%8.3%
47
Bat speed75.3
99
K%23.0%
46
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · RF
53
Arm Strength97.1 · RF
79
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs4.3 · RF
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · RF
76
Bolts23.0 · RF
83
SB Success Rate90.0% · RF
79
Sprint Speed29.2 · RF
93
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.4% · rebadged research
49
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.4% · rebadged research
22
Correct Decisions64.8% · rebadged research
36
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · borderline
81
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
78
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
79
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.297 · insufficient sample
99
Resists FastballwOBA 0.356 · validated
19
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336 · validated
91
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
162 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.016 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.011 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Smith’s wOBA sits at 0.313, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.340 — a gap of 0.027, 1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 374 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rodríguez, Julio SEA · R | 0.80 | Max exit velocityxwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
| Tatis Jr., Fernando SD · R | 0.70 | Whiff ratexwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
| Duran, Jarren BOS · L | 0.70 | Max exit velocitySprint speed | Player · Projection |
| Chourio, Jackson MIL · R | 0.66 | xwOBA on contactHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 2 | 2026-06-29 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.324 xwOBA | 11 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 2-3 |
| 2026-04-20 @ CLE0 HR | 1 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | K, RBI, R |
| 2026-04-17 vs STL0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | BB |
| 2026-04-15 vs COL0 HR | 1 RBI / 2 Ch | 1 E | 1-2 | 2B, BB, RBI |
| 2026-04-14 vs COL0 HR | 1 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K, RBI, R |