Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Lewis, Royce
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
61
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.318 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.306 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.311 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.286
0.298
0.311
0.325
0.337
wOBA
0.294
0.311
0.330
0.349
0.366
ISO
0.156
0.170
0.186
0.202
0.216
K%
21.1%
22.5%
24.0%
25.6%
26.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.2%
87
Exit velocity89.0
61
Hard-hit%40.2%
55
xBA0.318
46
xSLG0.560
67
xwOBA0.306
49
BB%9.0%
53
+18 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
79
K%26.2%
30
-24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 3B
61
Arm Strength83.2 · 3B
26
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 3B
18
Range Runs-3.5 · 3B
18
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · 1B
67
Sprint Speed27.7 · 1B
58
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.4% · rebadged research
39
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3% · rebadged research
48
Correct Decisions64.3% · rebadged research
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.306 · borderline
17
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
61
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.250 · validated thin sample
97
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.362 · insufficient sample
8
Resists FastballwOBA 0.306 · validated
95
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.328 · validated
96
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
38
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
111 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.001 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.023 |
| Sample | 279 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 438 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.308 | 0.284 to 0.357 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.184 | 0.141 to 0.257 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 6.5% | 4.7% to 8.8% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.6% | 38.2% to 47.7% | +/- 4.7% |
| K% | 21.8% | 17.2% to 27.4% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 7.4% | 5.3% to 10.6% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.273 | 0.230 to 0.310 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
297 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.250 |
| K% | 15.6% |
| BB% | 7.2% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |
vs RHP
771 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.251 |
| K% | 16.9% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 6.1% |