Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Lewis, Royce
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.318 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.283 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.304 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
xwOBA
0.275
0.289
0.304
0.320
0.333
wOBA
0.245
0.268
0.294
0.320
0.343
ISO
0.129
0.147
0.166
0.186
0.204
K%
20.6%
22.3%
24.3%
26.2%
27.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.2%
54
+21 vs proj
Barrel%7.0%
74
Bat speed71.1
72
Exit velocity88.0
44
Hard-hit%38.4%
43
K%28.9%
18
-32 vs proj
xBA0.312
37
xSLG0.493
44
xwOBA0.283
26
-21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 3B
68
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 3B
16
Range Runs-1.7 · 3B
23
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.3 · 3B
50
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.2% · rebadged research
33
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.8% · rebadged research
54
Correct Decisions64.0% · rebadged research
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · borderline
33
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · insufficient sample
58
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.255 · validated thin sample
94
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.353 · insufficient sample
13
Resists FastballwOBA 0.319 · validated
85
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.332 · validated
93
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
37
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
86 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.024 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.013 |
| Sample | 142 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 438 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.308 | 0.284 to 0.357 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.184 | 0.141 to 0.257 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 6.5% | 4.7% to 8.8% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.6% | 38.2% to 47.7% | +/- 4.7% |
| K% | 21.8% | 17.2% to 27.4% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 7.4% | 5.3% to 10.6% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.273 | 0.230 to 0.310 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
297 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.250 |
| K% | 15.6% |
| BB% | 7.2% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |
vs RHP
771 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.251 |
| K% | 16.9% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 6.1% |