Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.312 vs 0.274 xwOBA split).
Hitter projection / SD · 2026
Merrill, Jackson
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team SD
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
61
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.369 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.306 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.328 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.304
0.315
0.328
0.340
0.352
wOBA
0.269
0.283
0.298
0.314
0.327
ISO
0.128
0.140
0.153
0.166
0.178
K%
20.7%
21.9%
23.1%
24.4%
25.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.9%
63
-26 vs proj
Exit velocity88.4
53
Hard-hit%45.5%
78
xBA0.332
60
xSLG0.561
67
xwOBA0.306
47
-46 vs proj
BB%7.1%
31
Bat speed71.5
75
K%24.6%
38
-31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs4.3 · CF
100
Arm Strength95.6 · CF
71
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs0.6 · CF
51
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.0 · CF
97
Bolts10.0 · CF
69
SB Success Rate92.9% · CF
84
Sprint Speed29.0 · CF
90
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.4% · rebadged research
26
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.5% · rebadged research
90
Correct Decisions67.1% · rebadged research
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
52
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.255 · borderline
96
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
46
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290 · validated thin sample
25
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.266 · insufficient sample
100
Resists FastballwOBA 0.327 · validated
72
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.389 · validated
7
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
184 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.066 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.073 |
| Sample | 410 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 519 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.371 | 0.332 to 0.415 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.186 | 0.144 to 0.264 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 8.8% | 6.3% to 11.0% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.0% | 39.5% to 50.9% | +/- 5.7% |
| K% | 19.2% | 15.8% to 24.8% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 6.5% | 4.8% to 9.7% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.301 | 0.266 to 0.350 | +/- 0.042 |
vs LHP
347 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.274 |
| K% | 15.5% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 6.0% |
vs RHP
812 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.312 |
| K% | 16.1% |
| BB% | 5.2% |
| Barrel | 8.4% |