Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Castro, Willi
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.330 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.271 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.302 |
| Observed weight | 48% |
xwOBA
0.275
0.288
0.302
0.316
0.329
wOBA
0.308
0.328
0.351
0.374
0.394
ISO
0.101
0.119
0.138
0.158
0.176
K%
23.8%
25.2%
26.8%
28.4%
29.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.0%
29
Barrel%4.0%
35
Bat speed70.5
65
Exit velocity88.2
46
Hard-hit%46.8%
79
+40 vs proj
K%28.9%
18
-21 vs proj
xBA0.316
41
xSLG0.488
42
xwOBA0.271
17
-50 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
86
Arm Strength92.9 · 2B
89
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
45
Range Runs0.6 · 2B
56
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · 2B
54
Sprint Speed28.1 · 2B
72
SB Success Rate75.0% · 2B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.1% · rebadged research
13
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.3% · rebadged research
76
Correct Decisions62.7% · rebadged research
18
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · borderline
53
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
77
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
60
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.352 · insufficient sample
12
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated
56
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.341 · validated
86
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
21
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
116 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.058 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.022 |
| Sample | 201 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 499 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.329 | 0.304 to 0.377 | +/- 0.037 |
| ISO | 0.154 | 0.108 to 0.242 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 4.6% | 2.9% to 7.0% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.1% | 31.7% to 43.6% | +/- 6.0% |
| K% | 23.7% | 20.6% to 29.4% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 7.8% | 6.0% to 11.0% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.313 | 0.273 to 0.365 | +/- 0.046 |
vs LHP
757 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.260 |
| K% | 19.4% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |
vs RHP
1969 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.267 |
| K% | 21.2% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 4.0% |