Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026
Baty, Brett
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team NYM
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.313 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.305 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.309 |
| Observed weight | 49% |
xwOBA
0.285
0.297
0.309
0.322
0.334
wOBA
0.291
0.311
0.333
0.354
0.374
ISO
0.095
0.111
0.129
0.147
0.163
K%
23.2%
24.7%
26.3%
27.9%
29.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.4%
59
Barrel%6.1%
64
Bat speed72.6
86
Exit velocity89.9
68
Hard-hit%39.4%
47
-18 vs proj
K%27.4%
24
-18 vs proj
xBA0.348
73
xSLG0.560
64
xwOBA0.305
46
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 3B
65
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 3B
9
Range Runs-2.1 · 3B
18
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · 3B
61
Sprint Speed26.9 · 3B
39
SB Success Rate66.7% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.7% · rebadged research
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.9% · rebadged research
72
Correct Decisions69.8% · rebadged research
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
55
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · insufficient sample
12
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
60
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · insufficient sample
95
Resists FastballwOBA 0.344 · validated
43
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
49
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
81
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
130 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.021 |
| Sample | 212 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 447 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.311 | 0.291 to 0.345 | +/- 0.027 |
| ISO | 0.145 | 0.114 to 0.236 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 6.0% | 4.4% to 8.7% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.6% | 39.2% to 49.1% | +/- 5.0% |
| K% | 23.1% | 20.9% to 30.1% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 6.6% to 11.3% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.255 to 0.332 | +/- 0.038 |
vs LHP
240 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.227 |
| K% | 20.5% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |
vs RHP
870 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.257 |
| K% | 19.2% |
| BB% | 7.4% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |