Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / LAD · 2026
Hernández, Teoscar
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team LAD
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 34
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
84
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.336 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.333 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.334 |
| Observed weight | 70% |
xwOBA
0.309
0.321
0.334
0.347
0.358
wOBA
0.337
0.350
0.365
0.379
0.392
ISO
0.148
0.160
0.174
0.187
0.199
K%
25.2%
26.3%
27.5%
28.7%
29.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.1%
82
Exit velocity90.4
83
Hard-hit%45.4%
82
xBA0.370
93
xSLG0.629
86
xwOBA0.333
80
BB%8.7%
53
+26 vs proj
Bat speed70.8
69
K%27.5%
25
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.3 · LF
21
Arm Strength91.9 · LF
36
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · LF
5
Range Runs-4.6 · LF
14
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · LF
29
Bolts1.0 · LF
11
Sprint Speed28.3 · LF
75
SB Success Rate75.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.1% · rebadged research
43
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7% · rebadged research
43
Correct Decisions64.7% · rebadged research
33
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline
36
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample
16
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.317 · validated thin sample
4
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.303 · insufficient sample
91
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336 · validated
54
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.396 · validated
4
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
236 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.029 |
| Sample | 505 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 589 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 27 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.336 | 0.283 to 0.387 | +/- 0.052 |
| ISO | 0.161 | 0.117 to 0.253 | +/- 0.068 |
| Barrel% | 7.8% | 5.7% to 10.2% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 46.8% | 41.2% to 53.7% | +/- 6.2% |
| K% | 27.1% | 23.3% to 32.7% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 6.5% | 4.6% to 9.5% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.314 | 0.269 to 0.364 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
1218 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.307 |
| K% | 21.8% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 7.4% |
vs RHP
3483 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.287 |
| K% | 25.2% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 7.3% |