Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Cowser, Colton
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
57
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.313 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.316 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.315 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.282
0.298
0.315
0.332
0.348
wOBA
0.281
0.299
0.319
0.339
0.357
ISO
0.116
0.133
0.152
0.170
0.187
K%
27.9%
29.6%
31.4%
33.2%
34.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
72
Exit velocity85.5
21
Hard-hit%37.1%
42
-34 vs proj
xBA0.327
57
xSLG0.653
87
xwOBA0.316
60
BB%11.6%
81
+21 vs proj
Bat speed71.1
72
K%31.3%
11
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.5 · CF
65
Arm Strength97.2 · CF
81
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs5.0 · CF
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · CF
54
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
20
Sprint Speed28.0 · CF
68
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.1% · rebadged research
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1% · rebadged research
60
Correct Decisions65.9% · rebadged research
48
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
71
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.264 · insufficient sample
90
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
44
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · insufficient sample
77
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
45
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.399 · validated
4
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
63
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
93 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.008 |
| Sample | 249 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 448 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.311 | 0.268 to 0.379 | +/- 0.055 |
| ISO | 0.176 | 0.115 to 0.252 | +/- 0.068 |
| Barrel% | 7.1% | 4.7% to 9.6% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.2% | 37.8% to 53.5% | +/- 7.8% |
| K% | 31.9% | 25.1% to 37.1% | +/- 6.0% |
| BB% | 9.4% | 6.7% to 12.7% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.276 | 0.210 to 0.328 | +/- 0.059 |
vs LHP
264 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.232 |
| K% | 26.7% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 5.4% |
vs RHP
810 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.257 |
| K% | 25.5% |
| BB% | 8.1% |
| Barrel | 6.3% |