Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Cowser, Colton
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BAL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.313 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.305 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.310 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
xwOBA
0.271
0.290
0.310
0.330
0.349
wOBA
0.298
0.322
0.349
0.376
0.400
ISO
0.114
0.134
0.157
0.180
0.201
K%
27.3%
29.2%
31.4%
33.6%
35.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%11.8%
79
+20 vs proj
Barrel%6.2%
66
Bat speed70.8
68
Exit velocity84.0
9
Hard-hit%30.9%
16
-55 vs proj
K%31.2%
9
xBA0.318
44
xSLG0.608
77
xwOBA0.305
45
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · RF
73
Arm Strength97.2 · RF
85
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
45
Range Runs2.4 · RF
80
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.1 · RF
72
SB Success Rate50.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.9% · rebadged research
57
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2% · rebadged research
60
Correct Decisions65.7% · rebadged research
45
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
75
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
88
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268 · validated thin sample
74
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · insufficient sample
77
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351 · validated
32
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.393 · validated
4
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
60
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
74 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.039 |
| Sample | 144 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 448 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.311 | 0.268 to 0.379 | +/- 0.055 |
| ISO | 0.176 | 0.115 to 0.252 | +/- 0.068 |
| Barrel% | 7.1% | 4.7% to 9.6% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.2% | 37.8% to 53.5% | +/- 7.8% |
| K% | 31.9% | 25.1% to 37.1% | +/- 6.0% |
| BB% | 9.4% | 6.7% to 12.7% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.276 | 0.210 to 0.328 | +/- 0.059 |
vs LHP
264 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.232 |
| K% | 26.7% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 5.4% |
vs RHP
810 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.257 |
| K% | 25.5% |
| BB% | 8.1% |
| Barrel | 6.3% |