Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026

Duran, Jarren

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.336 xwOBA
Range
0.303 to 0.374
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced regular Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.340
xwOBA current pace0.313
xwOBA rolling p500.325
Observed weight54%
xwOBA
0.299 0.312 0.325 0.339 0.351
wOBA
0.301 0.319 0.338 0.358 0.376
ISO
0.159 0.175 0.192 0.210 0.226
K%
22.3% 23.7% 25.3% 26.9% 28.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.5%
43
Barrel%7.7%
81 +18 vs proj
Bat speed73.1
90
Exit velocity90.6
79
Hard-hit%43.4%
65
K%27.3%
24 -23 vs proj
xBA0.348
72
xSLG0.593
73
xwOBA0.313
54 -18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · LF
28
Arm Strength91.7 · LF
45
Outs Above Avg3.0 · LF
94
Range Runs3.1 · LF
87
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · LF
83
Bolts4.0 · LF
49
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
93
Sprint Speed29.0 · LF
92
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.1% · rebadged research
34
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3% · rebadged research
30
Correct Decisions61.7% · rebadged research
14
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.255 · borderline
96
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · insufficient sample
61
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267 · validated thin sample
77
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · insufficient sample
76
Resists FastballwOBA 0.370 · validated
10
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.368 · validated
25
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Duran, Jarren · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.2852026-05-19: 0.2872026-05-21: 0.2992026-05-23: 0.2992026-05-24: 0.2952026-05-25: 0.2922026-05-26: 0.2922026-05-28: 0.3102026-05-29: 0.3102026-05-30: 0.3082026-05-31: 0.3042026-06-01: 0.313 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jarren Duran's tools (83) outpace production (76) by 7 points. Primary finding: high exit velocity but low barrel rate — bat-to-ball efficiency is leaving power on the table. Also flagged: Launch Angle Too High; Passive In-Zone Approach.

See full optimization →

Launch Angle Too High
-8.5° Current 28° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Passive In-Zone Approach
Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

153 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Duran, Jarren · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsPull 12%Center field third: 71% of plotted batted ballsCenter 71%Right field third: 16% of plotted batted ballsOppo 16% LF 310 CF 390 RF 302 2026-03-15 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 32.02026-03-15 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 109.6 / LA -4.02026-03-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.7 / LA 29.02026-03-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 41.02026-03-19 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 57.1 / LA -50.02026-03-20 · field error · CU · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -19.02026-03-21 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 31.02026-03-21 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 9.02026-03-21 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 104.7 / LA 16.02026-03-23 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 95.2 / LA 16.02026-03-26 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 104.4 / LA -7.02026-03-26 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 72.6 / LA 23.02026-03-26 · field out · ST · popup · EV 86.2 / LA 62.02026-03-26 · single · CU · ground_ball2026-03-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball2026-03-28 · field out · FC · popup · EV 75.6 / LA 77.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · popup · EV 71.7 / LA 57.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.1 / LA 49.02026-03-30 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 73.0 / LA -17.02026-04-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 92.9 / LA 11.02026-04-01 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 88.2 / LA -18.02026-04-01 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 99.6 / LA 32.02026-04-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 85.8 / LA -12.02026-04-03 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 6.02026-04-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.4 / LA -19.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.8 / LA 38.02026-04-04 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 108.2 / LA 14.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 67.4 / LA -31.02026-04-05 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 84.8 / LA 33.02026-04-05 · double · KC · ground_ball · EV 94.5 / LA 6.02026-04-07 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 30.02026-04-10 · field out · FC · popup · EV 48.7 / LA 49.02026-04-10 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 93.4 / LA 24.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.6 / LA -12.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 114.7 / LA -3.02026-04-11 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.9 / LA -1.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 22.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.8 / LA -2.02026-04-11 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 77.4 / LA 17.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.8 / LA -12.02026-04-12 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 108.7 / LA 0.02026-04-12 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 112.3 / LA 16.02026-04-13 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 64.9 / LA -35.02026-04-13 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 112.2 / LA 22.02026-04-13 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.0 / LA -5.02026-04-13 · field out · FS · popup · EV 79.0 / LA 63.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.9 / LA -19.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 97.6 / LA 22.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.9 / LA -9.02026-04-15 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 107.1 / LA 5.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · popup · EV 75.3 / LA 68.02026-04-17 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 67.8 / LA -26.02026-04-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA 0.02026-04-17 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 75.6 / LA -41.02026-04-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.2 / LA -67.02026-04-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 81.9 / LA 46.02026-04-22 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 28.02026-04-22 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 25.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 40.1 / LA -66.02026-04-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 4.02026-04-23 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 109.5 / LA -9.02026-04-23 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 97.4 / LA -16.02026-04-23 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 78.7 / LA 8.02026-04-24 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 47.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 32.02026-04-24 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 87.6 / LA -35.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · popup · EV 90.3 / LA 68.02026-04-24 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 110.8 / LA -4.02026-04-25 · field out · CH · popup · EV 87.2 / LA 71.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · popup · EV 74.1 / LA 77.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.0 / LA 36.02026-04-25 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 2.02026-04-26 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 103.1 / LA 4.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA -37.02026-04-26 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA -18.02026-04-27 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 106.1 / LA -2.02026-04-27 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 107.9 / LA 14.02026-04-27 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 104.4 / LA 18.02026-04-27 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 1.02026-04-28 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 77.5 / LA 0.02026-04-28 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 77.9 / LA 27.02026-04-28 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 79.1 / LA 26.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 88.1 / LA 24.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · popup · EV 75.8 / LA 74.02026-05-01 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 25.02026-05-01 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 74.7 / LA -6.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.7 / LA 30.02026-05-02 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 94.1 / LA 14.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · popup · EV 69.6 / LA 81.02026-05-03 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 86.5 / LA 47.02026-05-03 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 111.8 / LA 21.02026-05-03 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 77.0 / LA 18.02026-05-03 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA -2.02026-05-04 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 0.02026-05-04 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 0.02026-05-04 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 33.02026-05-05 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 76.8 / LA -4.02026-05-05 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 74.6 / LA 58.02026-05-06 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 84.1 / LA 0.02026-05-07 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.8 / LA -7.02026-05-07 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 109.8 / LA 3.02026-05-07 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 88.2 / LA 54.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 81.7 / LA 56.02026-05-08 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.2 / LA 12.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 99.6 / LA 16.02026-05-08 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 92.4 / LA 33.02026-05-10 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 90.9 / LA -27.02026-05-10 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 67.2 / LA -13.02026-05-10 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 84.4 / LA 15.02026-05-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.3 / LA 2.02026-05-10 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 91.7 / LA 43.02026-05-12 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 3.02026-05-12 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 88.2 / LA -2.02026-05-13 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 42.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.2 / LA -5.02026-05-14 · field out · ST · popup · EV 65.2 / LA 45.02026-05-14 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 110.7 / LA 10.02026-05-14 · field out · FC · popup · EV 70.0 / LA 80.02026-05-14 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 59.7 / LA -70.02026-05-15 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 83.6 / LA 0.02026-05-15 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 104.7 / LA -7.02026-05-16 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 97.0 / LA 20.02026-05-16 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 87.2 / LA 3.02026-05-16 · field out · SI · popup · EV 77.6 / LA 63.02026-05-17 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 92.9 / LA 17.02026-05-17 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 107.3 / LA 13.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.9 / LA -19.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.5 / LA -1.02026-05-18 · sac fly · CH · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 47.02026-05-19 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 105.1 / LA 19.02026-05-19 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 38.02026-05-20 · triple · SI · line_drive · EV 114.1 / LA 11.02026-05-20 · field out · FC · popup · EV 83.2 / LA 76.02026-05-20 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 30.02026-05-22 · field out · SL · popup · EV 63.4 / LA 58.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.2 / LA -56.02026-05-23 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 100.5 / LA 9.02026-05-23 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 47.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · popup · EV 93.5 / LA 69.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · popup · EV 92.3 / LA 68.02026-05-24 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 30.4 / LA -33.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 92.6 / LA 19.02026-05-26 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 94.1 / LA 23.02026-05-26 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 111.7 / LA 13.02026-05-26 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.9 / LA 27.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 28.02026-05-27 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 106.6 / LA -11.02026-05-27 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 68.6 / LA 26.02026-05-27 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 86.3 / LA 20.02026-05-27 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 104.3 / LA 24.02026-05-31 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.0 / LA -27.02026-05-31 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 104.3 / LA -11.02026-05-31 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.9 / LA 25.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Duran, Jarren · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 26.9° Length 7.7 ft Ideal path 57% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Duran, Jarren · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 9.1° Direction -4.9° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Duran, Jarren · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 74.6 mph Hard swing rate 46% Whiff / swing 39% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Duran, Jarren · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 33%33%Whiff: 31%31%Zone contact: 85%85%Contact: 69%69%Hard hit: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.292 vs 0.255 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.024
wOBA Δ+0.002
Sample260 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances646----
Home Runs17----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3360.303 to 0.374+/- 0.036
ISO0.1970.147 to 0.275+/- 0.064
Barrel%6.0%3.7% to 7.8%+/- 2.0%
Hard-Hit%46.0%41.2% to 53.2%+/- 6.0%
K%22.3%18.4% to 28.3%+/- 4.9%
BB%7.7%5.6% to 10.7%+/- 2.6%
BABIP0.3250.290 to 0.385+/- 0.048
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

602 career PA

xwOBA0.255
K%22.4%
BB%5.3%
Barrel4.2%
vs RHP

1671 career PA

xwOBA0.292
K%19.6%
BB%7.2%
Barrel5.2%