Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.292 vs 0.255 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Duran, Jarren
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BOS
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
60
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.340 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.294 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.310 |
| Observed weight | 64% |
xwOBA
0.287
0.298
0.310
0.322
0.333
wOBA
0.264
0.278
0.294
0.309
0.323
ISO
0.143
0.156
0.171
0.185
0.198
K%
24.6%
25.9%
27.2%
28.6%
29.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.0%
78
Exit velocity88.9
59
Hard-hit%39.3%
51
-30 vs proj
xBA0.337
66
xSLG0.572
70
xwOBA0.294
35
-40 vs proj
BB%7.8%
39
Bat speed73.0
89
K%29.6%
17
-32 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · LF
26
Arm Strength91.7 · LF
38
Outs Above Avg6.0 · LF
97
Range Runs5.5 · LF
93
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · LF
86
Bolts9.0 · LF
66
SB Success Rate91.7% · LF
82
Sprint Speed29.2 · LF
93
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.9% · rebadged research
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.4% · rebadged research
29
Correct Decisions61.8% · rebadged research
15
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
24
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.261 · borderline
93
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
82
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260 · validated thin sample
92
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.310 · insufficient sample
94
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352 · validated
26
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
32
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
178 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.043 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.043 |
| Sample | 399 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 646 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 17 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.336 | 0.303 to 0.374 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.197 | 0.147 to 0.275 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 6.0% | 3.7% to 7.8% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 46.0% | 41.2% to 53.2% | +/- 6.0% |
| K% | 22.3% | 18.4% to 28.3% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 5.6% to 10.7% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.325 | 0.290 to 0.385 | +/- 0.048 |
vs LHP
602 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 22.4% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 4.2% |
vs RHP
1671 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.292 |
| K% | 19.6% |
| BB% | 7.2% |
| Barrel | 5.2% |