Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-04-02 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON

Current slate 2026-04-02

0 activated plays

Gap rows 111

Unique hitters 0

Avg gap --

Avg odds --

Newer: 2026-04-03 Older: 2026-04-01

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0

Average Gap --

Unique Hitters 0

Average Odds --

2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Play

TOR vs CWS | Sean Burke

Value Score 42.2

Odds / Gap +495 / +6.48%

1+ HR 23.3%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.155x

Value Rank #2

Andrew Benintendi

Strong

CWS vs TOR | Dylan Cease

Value Score 41.3

Odds / Gap +640 / +8.34%

1+ HR 21.9%

DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.155x

Value Rank #3

George Springer

Play

TOR vs CWS | Sean Burke

Value Score 39.9

Odds / Gap +475 / +5.67%

1+ HR 23.1%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.155x

Value Rank #4

Jesús Sánchez

Strong

TOR vs CWS | Sean Burke

Value Score 39.2

Odds / Gap +680 / +8.23%

1+ HR 21.1%

DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.155x

Value Rank #5

Daulton Varsho

Lean

TOR vs CWS | Sean Burke

Value Score 28.7

Odds / Gap +475 / +4.04%

1+ HR 21.4%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.155x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Andrew Benintendi

CWS vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 4

Strong

Best Gap +8.34%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +640 / U -895

+8.34%

13.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +640 / U -955

+8.34%

13.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +635 / U --

+8.24%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jesús Sánchez

TOR vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 5

Strong

Best Gap +8.23%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +680 / U -970

+8.23%

12.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +680 / U -1030

+8.23%

12.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +675 / U --

+8.15%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Nathan Lukes

TOR vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 6

Strong

Best Gap +8.07%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +960 / U -1590

+8.07%

9.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +945 / U --

+7.93%

FanDuel

0.5

O +940 / U -1680

+7.88%

9.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.1

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +6.48%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 23.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -685

+6.48%

16.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +490 / U -640

+6.34%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

+6.34%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Ozzie Albies

ATL vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +5.73%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -850

+5.73%

13.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +615 / U -905

+5.73%

13.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+5.64%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

George Springer

TOR vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +5.67%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 23.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

+5.67%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +470 / U --

+5.52%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

+5.36%

17.1%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Bo Bichette

NYM vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +5.60%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +695 / U -1000

+5.60%

12.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +695 / U -1065

+5.60%

12.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +690 / U --

+5.52%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jonathan India

KC vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +4.48%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 14.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +920 / U -1480

+4.48%

9.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +905 / U --

+4.33%

FanDuel

0.5

O +900 / U -1565

+4.28%

9.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Mike Yastrzemski

ATL vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +4.44%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -900

+4.44%

13.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +610 / U -850

+4.35%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+4.35%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Edgar Quero

CWS vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +4.09%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 12.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+4.09%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+4.09%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+4.09%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.5

Daulton Varsho

TOR vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +4.04%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

+4.04%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +470 / U --

+3.89%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

+3.73%

17.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Marcus Semien

NYM vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +4.01%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +605 / U -880

+4.01%

13.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +600 / U -830

+3.90%

13.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +600 / U --

+3.90%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Lane Thomas

KC vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +3.41%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +660 / U -935

+3.41%

12.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +660 / U -995

+3.41%

12.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +660 / U --

+3.41%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ryan Jeffers

MIN vs KC | Cole Ragans | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.09%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +680 / U -970

+3.09%

12.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +680 / U -1030

+3.09%

12.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +675 / U --

+3.01%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +2.73%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +470 / U -640

+2.73%

16.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -600

+2.57%

17.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+2.57%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +2.72%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

+2.72%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

+2.41%

17.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+2.41%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Drake Baldwin

ATL vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +2.49%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +530 / U -740

+2.49%

15.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +525 / U --

+2.36%

DraftKings

0.5

O +520 / U -695

+2.23%

15.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Heliot Ramos

SF vs NYM | David Peterson | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +2.47%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +600 / U -875

+2.47%

13.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +595 / U -820

+2.37%

13.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +595 / U --

+2.37%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Josh Bell

MIN vs KC | Cole Ragans | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +2.37%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +555 / U -790

+2.37%

14.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +550 / U -745

+2.26%

14.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +550 / U --

+2.26%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Juan Soto

NYM vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +2.31%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +325 / U -395

+2.31%

22.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +335 / U -425

+1.16%

22.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +330 / U --

-5.37%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Tyler Fitzgerald

SF vs NYM | David Peterson | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +2.29%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +730 / U -1075

+2.29%

11.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +730 / U -1140

+2.29%

11.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +725 / U --

+2.22%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.1

Austin Riley

ATL vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.94%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -685

+1.94%

16.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +490 / U -640

+1.80%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

+1.80%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Chase Meidroth

CWS vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.58%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 9.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+1.58%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+1.58%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+1.58%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 105.6

Byron Buxton

MIN vs KC | Cole Ragans | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +1.08%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +350 / U -435

+1.08%

21.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +360 / U -465

+0.09%

20.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +355 / U --

-4.37%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Matt Chapman

SF vs NYM | David Peterson | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +1.06%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +505 / U -695

+1.06%

15.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +500 / U --

+0.92%

DraftKings

0.5

O +495 / U -655

+0.78%

16.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Luke Keaschall

MIN vs KC | Cole Ragans | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.85%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 12.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +800 / U -1215

+0.85%

10.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +790 / U -1285

+0.72%

10.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +790 / U --

+0.72%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.0

Salvador Perez

KC vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.72%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +460 / U -625

+0.72%

17.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +455 / U --

+0.56%

DraftKings

0.5

O +450 / U -585

+0.40%

17.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jorge Polanco

NYM vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.42%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +510 / U -705

+0.42%

15.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +500 / U -660

+0.14%

16.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +500 / U --

+0.14%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Matt Olson

ATL vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.32%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 21.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +370 / U -475

+0.32%

20.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +360 / U --

-0.14%

DraftKings

0.5

O +355 / U -445

-0.38%

21.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.25%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +425 / U -560

+0.25%

18.3%

DraftKings

0.5

O +415 / U -525

-0.12%

18.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +415 / U --

-0.12%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Francisco Lindor

NYM vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.10%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +420 / U -555

+0.10%

18.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +415 / U --

-0.09%

DraftKings

0.5

O +410 / U -520

-0.28%

18.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Rafael Devers

SF vs NYM | David Peterson | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.32%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +390 / U -495

-0.32%

19.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +400 / U -530

-1.26%

19.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +395 / U --

-3.07%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Willy Adames

SF vs NYM | David Peterson | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.60%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +455 / U -610

-0.60%

17.3%

DraftKings

0.5

O +445 / U -570

-0.93%

17.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +445 / U --

-0.93%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Mark Vientos

NYM vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap -0.77%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -685

-0.77%

16.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +490 / U -640

-0.91%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

-0.91%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Colson Montgomery

CWS vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.78%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +325 / U -400

-0.78%

22.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +335 / U -430

-1.91%

22.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +330 / U --

-2.48%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Royce Lewis

MIN vs KC | Cole Ragans | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -0.83%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +505 / U -700

-0.83%

15.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +500 / U --

-0.97%

DraftKings

0.5

O +495 / U -655

-1.11%

16.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.8

Luis Arraez

SF vs NYM | David Peterson | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.36%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 5.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-1.36%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-1.86%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-2.14%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 103.8

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396

Latest Date 2026-06-19

Latest Signals 5

Date	Rows	Recommendations	Signals	Grading
2026-06-19 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	294 matched 0 unmatched	0 / 45 / 85 Strong / Play / Lean	5 William Contreras \| 30.8	-- Signals --
2026-06-18 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	195 matched 0 unmatched	27 / 43 / 45 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Trea Turner \| 52.3	-- Signals --
2026-06-17 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	225 matched 0 unmatched	27 / 79 / 46 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Bo Bichette \| 55.2	-- Signals --
2026-06-16 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	336 matched 0 unmatched	2 / 71 / 92 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Brandon Nimmo \| 38.7	-- Signals --
2026-06-15 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	168 matched 0 unmatched	27 / 29 / 36 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 39.6	-- Signals --
2026-06-14 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	390 matched 0 unmatched	53 / 83 / 83 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 55.4	-- Signals --
2026-06-13 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	291 matched 0 unmatched	36 / 53 / 87 Strong / Play / Lean	5 TJ Friedl \| 51.9	-- Signals --
2026-06-12 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	249 matched 0 unmatched	24 / 76 / 48 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 48.3	-- Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356

Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821

Over Hit Rate 15.9%

Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%