{
  "date": "2026-04-02",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-02T07:03:01.293222",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 63,
    "odds_matched_count": 37,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 17,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-04-02",
      "player_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_id": 621566,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 825105,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.216,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2434,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2161,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-02",
      "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_id": 596019,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "SF",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "game_id": 823242,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1933,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2148,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1935,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.99,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-02",
      "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 677951,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 824133,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2027,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2265,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2028,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-02",
      "player_name": "Daulton Varsho",
      "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho",
      "hitter_id": 662139,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824621,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2143,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2412,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2144,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-02",
      "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_id": 686469,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 824133,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2011,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2245,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2012,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-02",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 825105,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.193,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2144,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1931,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.9,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-02",
      "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665489,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "CWS",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "game_id": 824621,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2329,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2652,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.233,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-02",
      "player_name": "Andrew Benintendi",
      "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi",
      "hitter_id": 643217,
      "team": "CWS",
      "team_abbr": "CWS",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 824621,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 640,
      "over_odds": 640,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2185,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2465,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2186,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-02",
      "player_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_name": "Austin Riley",
      "hitter_id": 663586,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 825105,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1875,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2076,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1876,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.65,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-02",
      "player_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_id": 665742,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "SF",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "game_id": 823242,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 335,
      "over_odds": 335,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1789,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1971,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.179,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.91,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Olson",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.216,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "SF",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1933,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 49.99
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2027,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Daulton Varsho",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2143,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2011,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.193,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.9
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "CWS",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2329,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Andrew Benintendi",
        "team": "CWS",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 640,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2185,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Austin Riley",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1875,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.65
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Juan Soto",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "SF",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 335,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1789,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.91
      }
    ]
  }
}