Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs PIT | 6.94 | 31.5% | 33.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs LAA | 5.77 | 29.6% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SF vs CWS | 5.58 | 25.9% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 4 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs MIL | 5.49 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs HOU | 5.35 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TB | 5.25 | 25.9% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs SEA | 5.11 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs ATH | 5.08 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TEX | 4.96 | 22.1% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs DET | 4.72 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs KC | 4.71 | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 10 | 3 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs MIN | 4.68 | 20.1% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs BAL | 4.57 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Ryne Nelson
Probable starter
|
AZ vs COL | 4.45 | 21.3% | 23.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 4 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs PHI | 4.36 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs STL | 4.28 | 19.6% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs CLE | 4.26 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 2 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs CHC | 4.01 | 23.8% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs BOS | 3.97 | 19.5% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Brandon Sproat
Probable starter
|
MIL vs LAD | 3.96 | 20.7% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Christian Scott
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIA | 3.93 | 21.9% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Luis Medina
Probable starter
|
ATH vs SD | 3.91 | 21.9% | 20.6% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs NYY | 3.90 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Mitch Keller
Probable starter
|
PIT vs TOR | 3.90 | 19.0% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Noah Schultz
Probable starter
|
CWS vs SF | 3.84 | 21.6% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs ATL | 3.77 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs DET | 3.67 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Tyler Phillips
Probable starter
|
MIA vs NYM | 3.50 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs WSH | 3.48 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs CIN | 3.45 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Jose Quintana
Probable starter
|
COL vs AZ | 2.66 | 14.0% | 11.6% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.