Mithrandir Metrics
Player Miami Marlins Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Miami Marlins

Sandy Alcantara

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 5", 200 lb · Age 31

Cards
32
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Miami Marlins Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20237124.1428280184.21511.21
202511125.3631310174.21421.27
202613113.8935332213.01521.23
9 Seasons65783.6921220221288.110831.19
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
58
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
60
Arsenal7 metrics
66
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.75
ERA current pace3.85
ERA rolling p504.03
Observed weight80%
ERA
2.67 3.32 4.03 4.75 5.39
FIP
3.11 3.55 4.04 4.53 4.97
K%
16.4% 17.2% 18.0% 18.9% 19.6%
BB%
5.7% 6.2% 6.7% 7.1% 7.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.25
64
ERA3.85
57
BB%6.4%
86
K%17.5%
17
xwOBA allowed0.302
65 +41 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.5%
81 +49 vs proj
Fastball velo97.3
90
Hard-hit allowed36.6%
64
Whiff%18.5%
16
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+107
83
Cutter Stuff+100
40
Fastball Stuff+105
71
Mithrandir Stuff+106
86
Sinker Stuff+111
98
Slider Stuff+102
55
Curveball Stuff+101
28
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alcantara, Sandy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.302 2026-09-12: 0.3052026-09-13: 0.3052026-09-14: 0.3052026-09-18: 0.3052026-09-19: 0.3052026-09-20: 0.3052026-09-21: 0.3022026-09-22: 0.3022026-09-23: 0.3022026-09-24: 0.3022026-09-25: 0.3022026-09-26: 0.302 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alcantara, Sandy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alcantara, Sandy · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 26.1%Changeup: 20.4%4-Seam Fastball: 18.2%Cutter: 14.8%Sweeper: 8.9%Slider: 7.4% SI26% · 97 mphprimary pitch SI 26%CH 20%FF 18%FC 15%ST 9%SL 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alcantara, Sandy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 26% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 97.3 mphSI97 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 90.8 mphCH91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 18% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 97.4 mphFF97 mphCutter: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.9 mphFC90 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 84.1 mphST84 mphSlider: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.9 mphSL85 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 82.8 mphCU83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 25.1% 565 111 qualified
CH 21.8% 491 107 qualified
SL 21.6% 487 102 qualified
FB 17.9% 402 105 qualified
FC 10.7% 242 100 qualified
CB 2.9% 65 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height6' 5"
Weight200 lb
Debut2017-09-03
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.06
K% Δ-0.006

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.328
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.302

Alcantara’s wOBA-against sits at 0.328, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.302 — a gap of 0.026, 1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 217 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching322026-09-20Sinker played up through FF/CH tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202618.1% K | 4.91 ERAProjection
2026-04-12 @ DET7 ER / 4 K6.0 IP
2026-04-07 vs CIN2 ER / 6 K8.1 IP
2026-04-01 vs CWS0 ER / 7 K9.0 IP
2026-03-27 vs COL0 ER / 5 K7.0 IP