Mithrandir Metrics
Player New York Yankees Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / New York Yankees

Will Warren

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 200 lb · Age 27

Cards
20
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club New York Yankees Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20240310.3265022.2291.90
2025984.4433330162.11711.37
2026744.031919098.1961.36
3 Seasons16154.7658570283.12961.41
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal6 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.06
ERA current pace4.03
ERA rolling p504.04
Observed weight66%
ERA
2.80 3.39 4.04 4.70 5.29
FIP
3.12 3.51 3.94 4.37 4.75
K%
20.6% 21.8% 23.2% 24.6% 25.8%
BB%
6.1% 6.7% 7.4% 8.1% 8.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.31
53
ERA4.03
50
BB%7.4%
71
K%23.0%
54
xwOBA allowed0.325
39
Barrel allowed7.3%
57 +26 vs proj
Fastball velo93.5
34
Hard-hit allowed41.3%
34
Whiff%21.2%
35
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+107
84
Mithrandir Stuff+108
95
Sinker Stuff+103
63
Slider Stuff+113
99
Changeup Stuff+105
71
Curveball Stuff+99
12
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Warren, Will · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.325 2026-07-05: 0.3122026-07-06: 0.3122026-07-07: 0.3122026-07-08: 0.3122026-07-09: 0.3192026-07-10: 0.3192026-07-11: 0.3192026-07-12: 0.3192026-07-13: 0.3192026-07-14: 0.3252026-07-15: 0.3252026-07-16: 0.325 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Warren, Will · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Warren, Will · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.4%Sinker: 26.2%Sweeper: 19.6%Changeup: 10.5%Curveball: 4.2% FF39% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 39%SI 26%ST 20%CH 10%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Warren, Will · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.7 mphFF94 mphSinker: 26% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 93.3 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 20% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.0 mphST84 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.9 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 81.2 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 39.9% 496 107 qualified
SI 26.8% 333 103 qualified
SL 20.6% 256 113 qualified
CH 9.8% 122 105 limited sample
CB 2.9% 36 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 2"
Weight200 lb
Debut2024-07-30
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.28
K% Δ+0.002

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.359
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.325

Warren’s wOBA-against sits at 0.359, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.325 — a gap of 0.035, 1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 106 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching202026-07-12Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/ST tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.8% K | 4.31 ERAProjection
2026-04-13 vs LAA0 ER / 6 K3.2 IP
2026-04-08 vs ATH2 ER / 5 K4.2 IP
2026-04-03 vs MIA2 ER / 6 K5.2 IP