Mithrandir Metrics
Player Milwaukee Brewers Refreshed Oct 5 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Milwaukee Brewers

Lance McCullers Jr.

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 1", 200 lb · Age 33

Cards
11
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Milwaukee Brewers Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Status unconfirmed
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2022422.2788047.2501.24
2025256.511613055.1611.81
2026236.55108044.0481.55
9 Seasons53403.851561480818.09091.30
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-05
23
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
27
Arsenal7 metrics
30
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.55
16
ERA6.54
5
BB%14.2%
6
K%23.1%
58
xwOBA allowed0.328
31
Barrel allowed7.8%
45
Fastball velo91.4
10
Hard-hit allowed46.5%
4
Whiff%24.5%
64
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-10-05
Mithrandir Stuff+100
30
Changeup Stuff+100
36
Curveball Stuff+100
17
Cutter Stuff+99
33
Fastball Stuff+91
5
Sinker Stuff+104
61
Slider Stuff+100
32
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed McCullers Jr., Lance · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.328 2026-09-24: 0.3282026-09-25: 0.3282026-09-26: 0.3282026-09-27: 0.3282026-09-28: 0.3282026-09-29: 0.3282026-09-30: 0.3282026-10-01: 0.3282026-10-02: 0.3282026-10-03: 0.3282026-10-04: 0.3282026-10-05: 0.328 2026-09-24 2026-10-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile McCullers Jr., Lance · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 42%42%Hard hit allowed: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McCullers Jr., Lance · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 27.7%Sinker: 21.9%Sweeper: 16.7%Changeup: 15.5%Knuckle Curve: 14.1%4-Seam Fastball: 4.1% FC28% · 89 mphprimary pitch FC 28%SI 22%ST 17%CH 16%KC 14%FF 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McCullers Jr., Lance · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 89.0 mphFC89 mphSinker: 22% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 91.3 mphSI91 mphSweeper: 17% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 82.3 mphST82 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.5 mphCH86 mphKnuckle Curve: 14% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 81.6 mphKC82 mph4-Seam Fastball: 4% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 91.8 mphFF92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 27.1% 188 99 limited sample
SI 22.7% 158 104 limited sample
SL 16.7% 116 100 limited sample
CB 15.5% 108 100 limited sample
CH 13.7% 95 100 limited sample
FB 4.3% 30 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age33
Height6' 1"
Weight200 lb
Debut2015-05-18
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.395
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.328

Jr.’s wOBA-against sits at 0.395, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.328 — a gap of 0.068, 2.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 48 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching112026-05-06Knuckle Curve played up through KC/FC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

2026-04-11 @ SEA6 ER / 4 K4.1 IP
2026-04-05 @ ATH3 ER / 4 K4.0 IP
2026-03-30 vs BOS1 ER / 9 K7.0 IP