Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs SF | 6.22 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Max Fried
Probable starter
|
NYY vs LAA | 5.80 | 21.3% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 18.8 | 5 | 4 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs WSH | 5.30 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 5 | 3 |
Jack Leiter
Probable starter
|
TEX vs ATH | 5.23 | 25.8% | 28.4% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 5 | 3 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs BAL | 5.05 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 5 | 3 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs TEX | 4.90 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 5 | 3 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs SD | 4.88 | 22.5% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 3 |
Ryan Weiss
Probable starter
|
HOU vs COL | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Kris Bubic
Probable starter
|
KC vs DET | 4.62 | 24.7% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 2 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs CLE | 4.38 | 22.4% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 2 |
Juan Mejia
Probable starter
|
COL vs HOU | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs CIN | 4.25 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs PIT | 4.08 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 5 | 3 |
Steven Matz
Probable starter
|
TB vs CWS | 4.03 | 22.8% | 26.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 2 |
Brandon Sproat
Probable starter
|
MIL vs TOR | 3.97 | 20.7% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Jordan Leasure
Probable starter
|
CWS vs TB | 3.75 | 22.0% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Patrick Corbin
Probable starter
|
TOR vs MIL | 3.72 | 19.9% | 21.0% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Keider Montero
Probable starter
|
DET vs KC | 3.48 | 19.5% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs SEA | 3.48 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.