Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cleveland Guardians Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cleveland Guardians

Gavin Williams

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 6", 250 lb · Age 26

Cards
23
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Cleveland Guardians Position P Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20243104.861616076.0791.37
20251253.0631310167.21731.27
20261043.8119190113.11341.15
4 Seasons28243.6182820439.04671.25
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
64
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal6 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.19
71
ERA3.81
55
BB%7.6%
66
K%28.7%
87
xwOBA allowed0.324
40
Barrel allowed11.4%
8
Fastball velo96.8
84
Hard-hit allowed47.6%
5
Whiff%28.1%
85
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Curveball Stuff+103
68
Fastball Stuff+104
64
Mithrandir Stuff+105
79
Sinker Stuff+109
95
Slider Stuff+102
49
Cutter Stuff+106
92
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Williams, Gavin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.324 2026-07-06: 0.3292026-07-07: 0.3292026-07-08: 0.3292026-07-09: 0.3292026-07-10: 0.3292026-07-11: 0.3222026-07-12: 0.3222026-07-13: 0.3222026-07-14: 0.3222026-07-15: 0.3222026-07-16: 0.3242026-07-17: 0.324 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Williams, Gavin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 48%48% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williams, Gavin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 27.2%4-Seam Fastball: 23.2%Curveball: 21.9%Sinker: 18.6%Cutter: 9.0% ST27% · 87 mphprimary pitch ST 27%FF 23%CU 22%SI 19%FC 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williams, Gavin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 27% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.3 mphST87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 23% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.9 mphFF97 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 82.7 mphCU83 mphSinker: 19% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 96.6 mphSI97 mphCutter: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.2 mphFC92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 26.2% 316 102 qualified
FB 26.1% 315 104 qualified
CB 21.9% 265 103 qualified
SI 17.2% 208 109 qualified
FC 8.6% 104 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age26
Height6' 6"
Weight250 lb
Debut2023-06-21
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.341
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.324

Williams’s wOBA-against sits at 0.341, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.324 — a gap of 0.017, 0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 120 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching232026-07-09Sweeper played up through ST/SI tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

No projection links or recent game log rows are available yet.