Mithrandir Metrics
Player Boston Red Sox Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Boston Red Sox

Brayan Bello

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 195 lb · Age 27

Cards
16
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Boston Red Sox Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241484.4930300162.11531.36
20251193.3529280166.21241.24
2026674.3326111116.1921.37
5 Seasons45434.131261081659.25561.36
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
43
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal7 metrics
45
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.05
ERA current pace4.74
ERA rolling p504.52
Observed weight69%
ERA
3.46 3.96 4.52 5.09 5.59
FIP
3.32 3.57 3.84 4.10 4.35
K%
17.4% 18.4% 19.4% 20.5% 21.4%
BB%
6.2% 6.8% 7.4% 8.1% 8.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
48
ERA4.74
32
BB%6.9%
79 +21 vs proj
K%18.9%
29
xwOBA allowed0.337
25
Barrel allowed7.3%
52
Fastball velo95.4
66
Hard-hit allowed39.9%
40
Whiff%23.0%
53
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+103
63
Cutter Stuff+101
45
Mithrandir Stuff+101
41
Sinker Stuff+99
27
Curveball Stuff+104
71
Fastball Stuff+96
14
Slider Stuff+102
53
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bello, Brayan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.337 2026-09-12: 0.3512026-09-13: 0.3512026-09-14: 0.3512026-09-18: 0.3492026-09-19: 0.3492026-09-20: 0.3492026-09-21: 0.3402026-09-22: 0.3402026-09-23: 0.3402026-09-24: 0.3402026-09-25: 0.3402026-09-26: 0.337 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bello, Brayan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bello, Brayan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 38.6%Changeup: 20.2%Cutter: 14.9%Sweeper: 13.2%4-Seam Fastball: 9.5%Curveball: 3.6% SI39% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 39%CH 20%FC 15%ST 13%FF 9%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bello, Brayan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 39% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 95.3 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 89.0 mphCH89 mphCutter: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.5 mphFC87 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 86.0 mphST86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 9% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.7 mphFF96 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 83.4 mphCU83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 40.1% 606 99 qualified
CH 19.5% 295 103 qualified
FC 15.3% 231 101 qualified
SL 12.8% 193 102 limited sample
FB 8.1% 123 96 limited sample
CB 4.2% 64 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 1"
Weight195 lb
Debut2022-07-06
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.29
K% Δ-0.008

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.336
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.337

Bello’s wOBA-against sits at 0.336, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.337 — a gap of 0.002, -0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 121 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching162026-09-25Stuff and strike quality carried the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202619.8% K | 4.45 ERAProjection
2026-04-12 @ STL2 ER / 2 K6.2 IP
2026-04-06 vs MIL3 ER / 5 K3.1 IP
2026-03-31 @ HOU5 ER / 2 K4.2 IP