Mithrandir Metrics
Player Pittsburgh Pirates Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Pittsburgh Pirates

Paul Skenes

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 6", 260 lb · Age 24

Cards
30
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Pittsburgh Pirates Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241131.9623230133.01700.95
202510101.9732320187.22160.95
202610113.8232320174.12001.12
3 Seasons31242.6287870495.05861.01
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
77
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
71
Arsenal6 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.11
ERA current pace3.91
ERA rolling p503.71
Observed weight75%
ERA
2.25 2.94 3.71 4.48 5.17
FIP
2.40 2.78 3.20 3.63 4.01
K%
26.3% 27.3% 28.5% 29.7% 30.8%
BB%
5.7% 6.2% 6.8% 7.3% 7.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.13
82
ERA3.91
55
BB%7.1%
75
K%28.1%
86
xwOBA allowed0.281
84
Barrel allowed7.4%
51
Fastball velo96.7
84
Hard-hit allowed38.3%
50
Whiff%25.7%
74
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+96
18
Fastball Stuff+104
66
Mithrandir Stuff+105
74
Sinker Stuff+109
93
Slider Stuff+104
68
Curveball Stuff+102
49
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Skenes, Paul · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.281 2026-09-12: 0.2802026-09-13: 0.2802026-09-14: 0.2802026-09-18: 0.2802026-09-19: 0.2802026-09-20: 0.2802026-09-21: 0.2802026-09-22: 0.2802026-09-23: 0.2802026-09-24: 0.2802026-09-25: 0.2802026-09-26: 0.281 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Skenes, Paul · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Skenes, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.7%Sweeper: 15.8%Changeup: 12.3%Sinker: 12.2%Split-Finger: 9.9%Slider: 8.5% FF41% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 41%ST 16%CH 12%SI 12%FS 10%SL 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Skenes, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.8 mphFF97 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 84.2 mphST84 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.7 mphCH89 mphSinker: 12% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.6 mphSI97 mphSplit-Finger: 10% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 93.2 mphFS93 mphSlider: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.7 mphSL87 mphCurveball: 1% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 81.2 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.6% 747 104 qualified
SL 26.2% 449 104 qualified
SI 15.3% 262 109 qualified
CH 14.2% 243 96 qualified
CB 0.6% 11 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age24
Height6' 6"
Weight260 lb
Debut2024-05-11
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.78
K% Δ+0.013

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.307
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.281

Skenes’s wOBA-against sits at 0.307, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.281 — a gap of 0.027, 1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 176 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching302026-09-24Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202626.8% K | 3.13 ERAProjection
2026-04-13 vs WSH1 ER / 6 K6.0 IP
2026-04-07 vs SD1 ER / 6 K6.1 IP
2026-04-01 @ CIN1 ER / 5 K5.0 IP
2026-03-26 @ NYM5 ER / 1 K0.2 IP