Mithrandir Metrics
Player Texas Rangers Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Texas Rangers

Nathan Eovaldi

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 217 lb · Age 36

Cards
14
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Texas Rangers Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241283.8029290170.21661.11
20251131.7322220130.01290.85
2026674.231414087.1831.17
15 Seasons108913.9133031101789.215701.25
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
51
Arsenal5 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-15
ERA preseason3.44
ERA current pace4.26
ERA rolling p503.93
Observed weight60%
ERA
2.88 3.38 3.93 4.48 4.98
FIP
3.51 3.79 4.09 4.39 4.66
K%
19.4% 20.6% 22.1% 23.5% 24.7%
BB%
4.5% 5.0% 5.7% 6.4% 6.9%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.19
69
ERA4.26
38
BB%5.9%
86
K%21.8%
46
xwOBA allowed0.335
31 -30 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.3%
30
Fastball velo94.1
47
Hard-hit allowed41.5%
37
Whiff%26.9%
77 +29 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-15
Mithrandir Stuff+105
75
Curveball Stuff+100
18
Cutter Stuff+102
46
Fastball Stuff+109
90
Sinker Stuff+104
61
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Eovaldi, Nathan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.335 2026-06-04: 0.3242026-06-05: 0.3242026-06-06: 0.3242026-06-07: 0.3242026-06-08: 0.3242026-06-09: 0.3242026-06-10: 0.3242026-06-11: 0.3352026-06-12: 0.3352026-06-13: 0.3352026-06-14: 0.3352026-06-15: 0.335 2026-06-04 2026-06-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Eovaldi, Nathan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Eovaldi, Nathan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 37.6%Cutter: 20.9%Curveball: 20.4%4-Seam Fastball: 12.4%Sinker: 8.0%Slider: 0.7% FS38% · 88 mphprimary pitch FS 38%FC 21%CU 20%FF 12%SI 8%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Eovaldi, Nathan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Split-Finger: 38% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 88.4 mphFS88 mphCutter: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.6 mphFC91 mphCurveball: 20% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 76.5 mphCU76 mph4-Seam Fastball: 12% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.5 mphFF95 mphSinker: 8% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.5 mphSI94 mphSlider: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.5 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 34.8% 194 102 limited sample
CB 32.5% 181 100 limited sample
FB 18.1% 101 109 limited sample
SI 13.3% 74 104 limited sample
SL 1.3% 7 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age36
Height6' 2"
Weight217 lb
Debut2011-08-06
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.67
K% Δ+0.004

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.339
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.335

Eovaldi’s wOBA-against sits at 0.339, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.335 — a gap of 0.004, 0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 84 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching142026-05-23Split-Finger played up through FS/CU tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.4% K | 3.59 ERAProjection
2026-04-13 @ ATH0 ER / 7 K7.0 IP
2026-04-07 vs SEA2 ER / 7 K6.0 IP
2026-04-01 @ BAL6 ER / 5 K4.0 IP
2026-03-26 @ PHI5 ER / 7 K4.2 IP