Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Garrett Crochet
Probable starter
|
BOS vs MIL | 7.65 | 30.9% | 33.2% | 22.4% | 18.0 | 6 | 2 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
TOR vs LAD | 6.46 | 30.6% | 32.8% | 22.4% | 17.6 | 6 | 2 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
NYM vs AZ | 6.30 | 28.6% | 32.6% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 6 | 2 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs KC | 6.18 | 27.6% | 34.4% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 6 | 2 |
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
DET vs MIN | 6.18 | 26.9% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 18.4 | 6 | 2 |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs SF | 6.13 | 27.8% | 30.5% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 6 | 2 |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs BOS | 6.13 | 31.6% | 30.2% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 6 | 2 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs ATH | 5.99 | 29.0% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 6 | 2 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs SD | 5.81 | 27.2% | 29.6% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 6 | 2 |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable starter
|
TEX vs SEA | 5.74 | 25.1% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 6 | 2 |
Nick Pivetta
Probable starter
|
SD vs PIT | 5.68 | 27.4% | 27.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 6 | 2 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SF vs PHI | 5.66 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 5 | 2 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs TOR | 5.58 | 25.0% | 27.6% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 6 | 2 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TEX | 5.52 | 24.9% | 34.0% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 6 | 2 |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable starter
|
LAA vs ATL | 5.45 | 21.7% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 6 | 2 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs CIN | 5.22 | 20.1% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 6 | 2 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs DET | 5.02 | 20.8% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 5 | 1 |
Mike Burrows
Probable starter
|
HOU vs COL | 4.74 | 24.2% | 26.0% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 6 | 2 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs MIA | 4.44 | 20.6% | 20.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 6 | 2 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs CLE | 4.43 | 21.4% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 6 | 1 |
Zac Gallen
Probable starter
|
AZ vs NYM | 4.41 | 19.3% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 6 | 2 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs CWS | 4.34 | 20.2% | 21.6% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 6 | 2 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs HOU | 4.25 | 18.4% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 6 | 2 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs CHC | 4.23 | 22.6% | 22.6% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 6 | 2 |
Shane Smith
Probable starter
|
CWS vs BAL | 4.16 | 20.6% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 13.6 | 6 | 2 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs STL | 4.11 | 19.6% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 6 | 2 |
Reynaldo López
Probable starter
|
ATL vs LAA | 4.06 | 20.4% | 24.6% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 5 | 1 |
Aaron Civale
Probable starter
|
ATH vs NYY | 3.83 | 19.7% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 7 | 1 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs WSH | 3.60 | 17.0% | 16.4% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 6 | 2 |
Javier Assad
Probable starter
|
CHC vs TB | 3.41 | 19.1% | 17.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.