Mithrandir Metrics
Player Colorado Rockies Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Colorado Rockies

Kyle Freeland

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 4", 202 lb · Age 33

Cards
16
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Colorado Rockies Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024585.2421210113.1851.41
20255174.9831310162.21241.42
2026287.361717088.0791.57
10 Seasons67984.7325324801348.110231.43
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
30
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
25
Arsenal7 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.91
ERA current pace7.36
ERA rolling p506.47
Observed weight64%
ERA
5.04 5.72 6.47 7.22 7.89
FIP
3.51 4.03 4.61 5.19 5.71
K%
16.0% 17.1% 18.4% 19.6% 20.8%
BB%
3.8% 4.4% 4.9% 5.5% 6.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.58
12
ERA7.36
3
BB%4.5%
98
K%19.3%
29 +18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.359
11
Barrel allowed11.2%
10 -21 vs proj
Fastball velo91.5
11
Hard-hit allowed42.9%
24
Whiff%20.6%
30 +23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-16
Curveball Stuff+100
25
Cutter Stuff+106
85
Fastball Stuff+103
51
Mithrandir Stuff+102
48
Changeup Stuff+107
80
Sinker Stuff+97
18
Slider Stuff+98
27
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Freeland, Kyle · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.359 2026-07-05: 0.3602026-07-06: 0.3602026-07-07: 0.3602026-07-08: 0.3652026-07-09: 0.3652026-07-10: 0.3652026-07-11: 0.3652026-07-12: 0.3652026-07-13: 0.3592026-07-14: 0.3592026-07-15: 0.3592026-07-16: 0.359 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Freeland, Kyle · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Freeland, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 25.2%Cutter: 21.1%Knuckle Curve: 20.7%Changeup: 15.2%Sweeper: 12.1%Sinker: 5.7% FF25% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 25%FC 21%KC 21%CH 15%ST 12%SI 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Freeland, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 91.5 mphFF91 mphCutter: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 87.6 mphFC88 mphKnuckle Curve: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 82.4 mphKC82 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.4 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 82.7 mphST83 mphSinker: 6% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.8 mphSI92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 25.9% 288 103 qualified
CB 21.6% 240 100 qualified
FC 19.7% 219 106 qualified
CH 15.8% 175 107 limited sample
SL 13.0% 144 98 limited sample
SI 4.1% 45 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age33
Height6' 4"
Weight202 lb
Debut2017-04-07
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.95
K% Δ+0.030

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.414
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.359

Freeland’s wOBA-against sits at 0.414, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.359 — a gap of 0.055, 2.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 91 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching162026-07-11Changeup played up through SI/ST tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202616.3% K | 5.41 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs TEX3 ER / 4 K4.2 IP
2026-04-12 @ SD0 ER / 0 K0.0 IP
2026-04-07 vs HOU1 ER / 5 K6.1 IP
2026-04-01 @ TOR1 ER / 6 K5.0 IP
2026-03-27 @ MIA2 ER / 2 K4.1 IP